Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
Delaying the Epidemic to Help the System Adapt | |
admin | |
2020-03-19 | |
发布年 | 2020 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 法国 |
领域 | 地球科学 |
正文(英文) |
Preventive messages concerning the new Covid-19 coronavirus epidemic. Stage 3 in the business district of La Défense, in Paris (16/03/2020).
Interview with Josselin Thuilliez, a health economist, on coronavirus. This CNRS scientist works on epidemics and their impact on individual behaviours, healthcare systems and control policies. He is a member of REACTing, a consortium set up to coordinate research on emerging outbreaks.
Do we have any recent experience of an epidemic on a scale comparable to that of Covid-19 in France? Now that confinement measures have been taken throughout the country, do you think that France’s response is sufficient to deal with the crisis? Does the French system have sufficient capacity to deal with a health crisis on this scale? Indeed, if you look country by country at the evolutionary curves of the outbreak (the cumulated number of cases relative to the population) since patient zero was identified, the curve for France increases less rapidly than others and was flatter at the start, although it is now strongly accelerating. Countries such as Switzerland, Norway or Iran saw a much steeper rise in the number of cases soon after the first ones were detected, while Italy experienced an explosion as from D+20. France and Germany are seeing a relatively similar evolution, with a marked acceleration as from D+30, in other words a few days later. What does an epidemic curve look like? The economic interpretation – and thus its added value – is based on the personal and collective behaviours of different actors and the study of unanticipated effects: individuals react to a risk and to their environment (neighbours, local area and public policies). They may therefore increase their level of protection in response to the infection, which will slow down or even reduce its spread; there is nevertheless a risk of a rebound if people lower their guard, such as when effective treatments are introduced, or are becoming weary of preventive measures. A third reading of the S-curve is linked to the introduction of innovations that will allow the illness to reach its peak and then start to decline. Such innovations may include new treatments or vaccines, but also different behaviours or novel public policies. What do we know about the effect of specific measures, such as closing schools? A significant reduction in transmission rates was also observed during transport strikes, although on the contrary, extensions to the high-speed train (TVG) network during this 25-year period globally increased contagion. The same study also found that closing schools for two weeks resulted in an average reduction of 12% in the annual incidence of the three diseases, while a policy to close public transport for a week made it possible to achieve the same result. In view of the mortality rates observed with Covid-19, which are around twenty times higher than those observed with seasonal influenza, this analysis shows that current measures are entirely justified in terms of cost-efficiency to fight this pandemic. You belong to the REACTing (Research and action targeting emerging infectious diseases) research group. Can you tell us more about it? In the longer term, the consortium is participating in discussions by the international community on the best response to make to these epidemic threats. From an economic perspective, one option might be to set up a global insurance and solidarity system to foster innovations throughout the world. This would consist in providing financial or monetary incentives for the development of novel solutions before an epidemic starts, so as to react more rapidly. Indeed, breakthroughs in the health sector (in particular the creation of vaccines and drugs) require considerable research and development funding, even though the market is unpredictable: it is impossible to tell whether a disease will one day develop into an epidemic and such R&D costs will pay off. Yet whichever system is chosen to improve the fight against emerging outbreaks in the future, they will not all happen and we will not be able to prevent them all. One thing is certain: there will be further epidemics, as there have always been throughout human history, occurring more or less frequently. We need to prepare for the related risks and uncertainties by setting up cooperative mechanisms that are more effective than those we have today. Finally, what are your views on today’s mobilisation by research teams the world over? Are there real efforts to collaborate? Footnotes
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来源平台 | Centre national de la recherche scientifique |
文献类型 | 新闻 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/232387 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | admin. Delaying the Epidemic to Help the System Adapt. 2020. |
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