资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

BACKGROUND: Coarse particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter between 2.5 and 10 mu m (PM2.5-10) air pollution is a severe environmental problem in developing countries, but its challenges to public health were rarely evaluated.

OBJECTIVE: We aimed to investigate the associations between day-to-day changes in PM2.5-10 and cause-specific mortality in China.

METHODS: We conducted a nationwide daily time-series analysis in 272 main Chinese cities from 2013 to 2015. The associations between PM2.5-10 concentrations and mortality were analyzed in each city using overdispersed generalized additive models. Two-stage Bayesian hierarchical models were used to estimate national and regional average associations, and random-effect models were used to pool city-specific concentration-response curves. Two-pollutant models were adjusted for fine particles with aerodynamic diameter <= 2.5 mu m (PM2.5) or gaseous pollutants.

RESULTS: Overall, we observed positive and approximately linear concentration-response associations between PM2.5-10 and daily mortality. A 10-mu g/m(3) increase in PM2.5-10 was associated with higher mortality due to nonaccidental causes [0.23%; 95% posterior interval (PI): 0,13, 0.33], cardiovascular diseases (CVDs; 0.25%; 95% PI: 0.13, 0.37), coronary heart disease (CHD; 0.21%; 95% PI: 0.05, 0.36), stroke (0.21%; 95% PI: 0.08, 0.35), respiratory diseases (0.26%; 95% PI: 0.07, 0.46), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD; 0.34%; 95% PI: 0.12, 0.57). Associations were stronger for cities in southern vs. northern China, with significant differences for total and cardiovascular mortality. Associations with PM25-10 were of similar magnitude to those for PM2.5 in both single- and two-pollutant models with mutual adjustment. Associations were robust to adjustment for gaseous pollutants other than nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Meta-regression indicated that a larger positive correlation between PM2.5-10 and PM2.5 predicted stronger city-specific associations between PM2.5-10 and total mortality.

CONCLUSIONS: This analysis showed significant associations between short-term PM2.5-10 exposure and daily nonacciclental and cardiopulmonary mortality based on data from 272 cities located throughout China. Associations appeared to be independent of exposure to PM2.5, carbon monoxide, and ozone.