Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
Scratch that Cat: Revising the Saffir-Simpson Scale | |
admin | |
2020-03-02 | |
发布年 | 2020 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 美国 |
领域 | 气候变化 |
正文(英文) | In recent years minimum sea level pressure (MSLP) measured in a hurricane’s eye has become “a much better predictor of hurricane damage” than the maximum sustained wind speed (Vmax) upon which the revered Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale is based. New research by seasonal hurricane forecaster Phil Klotzbach et al. finds that MSLP is also more accurately measurable than Vmax, “making it an ideal quantity for evaluating a hurricane’s potential damage.”
Klotzbach et al. argue that Vmax is “nearly impossible to measure directly” as the maximum wind mentioned in advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center is the highest 1 minute sustained surface wind occurring “in an unobstructed exposure; (i.e., not blocked by buildings or trees),” which is essentially at sea, not over land. Even with today’s technology, the sparsely observed maximum wind speed is often just an estimate–even land observations are limited by anemometer failure at speeds over 50 kt. In contrast, MSLP is easy to locate at the storm’s center and is routinely measured by the hurricane hunters in every aircraft reconnaissance mission. Earlier versions of the Saffir-Simpson scale, created in the early 1970s by engineer Herb Saffir and meteorologist and Hurricane Center director Bob Simpson, incorporated MSLP as a proxy for wind, and they also included ranges by category of storm surge height. But these led to public confusion when actual storm surges and low pressure readings didn’t match up with the categorized winds, and they were removed in 2012.
The difference between using MSLP and Vmax when predicting damage potential has become more noticeable in recent years. This is “likely due to larger-sized hurricanes such as Ike (2008) and Sandy (2012) which did much more damage than would be typically associated with hurricanes making landfall at Category 2 and Category 1 intensity, respectively.” Both storms had much larger storm surges than their category rankings suggested, as did Hurricane Katrina, which was Category 3 at landfall based on Vmax, but had a MSLP equivalent to a Category 5. Its storm surge was measured at a record 28 feet and the resulting damage was catastrophic, consistent with a Cat 5 hurricane. Using MSLP to re-categorize some historic hurricanes at landfall, the study finds the following:
The new BAMS paper is available as an Early Online Release. It will be adapted for print and published in the February issue. |
URL | 查看原文 |
来源平台 | American Meteorological Society |
文献类型 | 新闻 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/229545 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | admin. Scratch that Cat: Revising the Saffir-Simpson Scale. 2020. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
个性服务 |
推荐该条目 |
保存到收藏夹 |
查看访问统计 |
导出为Endnote文件 |
谷歌学术 |
谷歌学术中相似的文章 |
[admin]的文章 |
百度学术 |
百度学术中相似的文章 |
[admin]的文章 |
必应学术 |
必应学术中相似的文章 |
[admin]的文章 |
相关权益政策 |
暂无数据 |
收藏/分享 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论