Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.foreco.2017.05.032 |
Recent and future climate suitability for whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetles varies across the western US | |
Buotte, Polly C.1,2; Hicke, Jeffrey A.2; Preisler, Haiganoush K.3; Abatzoglou, John T.2; Raffa, Kenneth F.4; Logan, Jesse A.5 | |
2017-09-01 | |
发表期刊 | FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
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ISSN | 0378-1127 |
EISSN | 1872-7042 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 399 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine forests have been extensive and severe. Understanding the climate influences on these outbreaks is essential for developing management plans that account for potential future mountain pine beetle outbreaks, among other threats, and informing listing decisions under the Endangered Species Act. Prior research has focused on one geographic region, but geographic variability in beetle and tree physiological responses to climate conditions have been documented. Here we evaluate geographic variability in climate influences on recent beetle outbreaks in whitebark pine and estimate future climate suitability for outbreaks across much of the range of white bark pine in the western US. To accomplish these objectives, we developed and analyzed statistical models for three different geographic regions as well as a Westwide model, then applied the Westwide model to a suite of climate projections. The general patterns of climate-tree mortality relationships were similar across the three regions of our study. However, the relative importance of individual climate metrics preceding and during the recent outbreaks varied geographically because of the different climates in the regions. Winter minimum temperatures appeared to be limiting prior to outbreaks in the colder regions. All regions experienced low summer precipitation prior to or during outbreak initiation. Future climate suitability for beetle outbreaks is estimated to increase or remain stable in the coldest regions and decline slightly in the warmest region by the end of this century. Across the study area, projections of higher winter temperatures and decreased summer precipitation (with lower confidence than for temperatures) contribute to increased climate suitability for outbreaks, while projected higher fall/spring/summer temperatures contribute to decreased suitability. Some regional variability exists; in particular, the effect of winter warming is muted in the warmest region (Cascades) where winter temperatures appear to be less limiting. However, all regions are projected to experience fewer years with very low suitability, which commonly occurred prior to the recent outbreaks and may have limited beetle populations. Given the inherent uncertainty in climate projections and ecological responses to novel climates, management plans that incorporate sites that are expected to experience a range of expected future climate conditions might increase the chances of whitebark pine persistence in a warmer future. (C) 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
英文关键词 | Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) Mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) Climate suitability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000404195800013 |
WOS关键词 | GREATER YELLOWSTONE ECOSYSTEM ; UNITED-STATES ; DENDROCTONUS-PONDEROSAE ; BARK BEETLES ; SPATIOTEMPORAL PATTERNS ; TREE MORTALITY ; DISTURBANCE ; SCOLYTIDAE ; COLEOPTERA ; DROUGHT |
WOS类目 | Forestry |
WOS研究方向 | Forestry |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/22870 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Idaho, Environm Sci Program, Moscow, ID 83844 USA; 2.Univ Idaho, Dept Geog, Moscow, ID 83844 USA; 3.US Forest Serv, Pacific Southwest Res Stn, USDA, Albany, CA 94710 USA; 4.Univ Wisconsin, Dept Entomol, Madison, WI 53706 USA; 5.US Forest Serv, USDA, Emigrant, MT 59027 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Buotte, Polly C.,Hicke, Jeffrey A.,Preisler, Haiganoush K.,et al. Recent and future climate suitability for whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetles varies across the western US[J]. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,2017,399. |
APA | Buotte, Polly C.,Hicke, Jeffrey A.,Preisler, Haiganoush K.,Abatzoglou, John T.,Raffa, Kenneth F.,&Logan, Jesse A..(2017).Recent and future climate suitability for whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetles varies across the western US.FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,399. |
MLA | Buotte, Polly C.,et al."Recent and future climate suitability for whitebark pine mortality from mountain pine beetles varies across the western US".FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 399(2017). |
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