Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-19-2991-2019 |
Characterizing uncertainties in atmospheric inversions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in California | |
Brophy, Kieran1; Graven, Heather1; Manning, Alistair J.2; White, Emily3; Arnold, Tim4,5; Fischer, Marc L.6; Jeong, Seongeun6; Cui, Xinguang6; Rigby, Matthew3 | |
2019-03-07 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
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ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 19期号:5页码:2991-3006 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England; Scotland; USA |
英文摘要 | Atmospheric inverse modelling has become an increasingly useful tool for evaluating emissions of greenhouse gases including methane, nitrous oxide, and synthetic gases such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). Atmospheric inversions for emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion (ffCO(2)) are currently being developed. The aim of this paper is to investigate potential errors and uncertainties related to the spatial and temporal prior representation of emissions and modelled atmospheric transport for the inversion of ffCO(2) emissions in the US state of California. We perform simulation experiments based on a network of ground-based observations of CO2 concentration and radiocarbon in CO2 (a tracer of ffCO(2)), combining prior (bottom-up) emission models and transport models currently used in many atmospheric studies. The potential effect of errors in the spatial and temporal distribution of prior emission estimates is investigated in experiments by using perturbed versions of the emission estimates used to create the pseudo-data. The potential effect of transport error was investigated by using three different atmospheric transport models for the prior and pseudo-data simulations. We find that the magnitude of biases in posterior total state emissions arising from errors in the spatial and temporal distribution in prior emissions in these experiments are 1 %-15% of posterior total state emissions and are generally smaller than the 2 sigma uncertainty in posterior emissions. Transport error in these experiments introduces biases of -10% to +6% into posterior total state emissions. Our results indicate that uncertainties in posterior total state ffCO(2) estimates arising from the choice of prior emissions or atmospheric transport model are on the order of 15% or less for the ground-based network in California we consider. We highlight the need for temporal variations to be included in prior emissions and for continuing efforts to evaluate and improve the representation of atmospheric transport for regional ffCO(2) inversions. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000460760400001 |
WOS关键词 | YAMADA LEVEL-3 MODEL ; CARBON-DIOXIDE ; TRANSPORT ; SYSTEM ; SENSITIVITY ; EUROPE ; FLUXES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/22739 |
专题 | 地球科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Imperial Coll London, Dept Phys, London, England; 2.Met Off, Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England; 3.Univ Bristol, Sch Chem, Bristol, Avon, England; 4.Natl Phys Lab, London, England; 5.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 6.Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Brophy, Kieran,Graven, Heather,Manning, Alistair J.,et al. Characterizing uncertainties in atmospheric inversions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in California[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2019,19(5):2991-3006. |
APA | Brophy, Kieran.,Graven, Heather.,Manning, Alistair J..,White, Emily.,Arnold, Tim.,...&Rigby, Matthew.(2019).Characterizing uncertainties in atmospheric inversions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in California.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,19(5),2991-3006. |
MLA | Brophy, Kieran,et al."Characterizing uncertainties in atmospheric inversions of fossil fuel CO2 emissions in California".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 19.5(2019):2991-3006. |
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