Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019JD031232 |
Toward a Better Regional Ozone Forecast Over CONUS Using Rapid Data Assimilation of Clouds and Meteorology in WRF-Chem | |
Ryu, Young-Hee1; Hodzic, Alma1; Descombes, Gael1,2; Hu, Ming3,4; Barre, Jerome5 | |
2019-12-16 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES |
ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:23页码:13576-13592 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; France; England |
英文摘要 | Accuracy of cloud predictions in numerical weather models can considerably impact ozone (O-3) forecast skill. This study assesses the benefits in surface O-3 predictions of using the Rapid Refresh (RAP) forecasting system that assimilates clouds as well as conventional meteorological variables at hourly time scales. We evaluate and compare the WRF-Chem simulations driven by RAP and the Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2016 summer. The day 1 forecasts of surface O-3 and temperature driven by RAP are in better agreements with observations. Reductions of 5 ppb in O-3 mean bias error and 2.4 ppb in O-3 root-mean-square-error are obtained on average over CONUS with RAP compared to those with GFS. The WRF-Chem simulation driven by GFS shows a higher probability of capturing O-3 exceedances but exhibits more frequent false alarms, resulting from its tendency to overpredict O-3. The O-3 concentrations are found to respond mainly to the changes in boundary layer height that directly affects the mixing of O-3 and its precursors. The RAP data assimilation shows improvements in the cloud forecast skill during the initial forecast hours, which reduces O-3 forecast errors at the initial forecast hours especially under cloudy-sky conditions. Sensitivity simulations utilizing satellite clouds show that the WRF-Chem simulation with RAP produces too thick low-level clouds, which leads to O-3 underprediction in the boundary layer. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000505626200066 |
WOS关键词 | MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; PREDICTION ; RADIATION ; PATH |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225948 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.INERIS, Verneuil En Halatte, France; 3.Univ Colorado Boulder, NOAA, OAR, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA; 4.Univ Colorado Boulder, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO USA; 5.European Ctr Medium Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ryu, Young-Hee,Hodzic, Alma,Descombes, Gael,et al. Toward a Better Regional Ozone Forecast Over CONUS Using Rapid Data Assimilation of Clouds and Meteorology in WRF-Chem[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(23):13576-13592. |
APA | Ryu, Young-Hee,Hodzic, Alma,Descombes, Gael,Hu, Ming,&Barre, Jerome.(2019).Toward a Better Regional Ozone Forecast Over CONUS Using Rapid Data Assimilation of Clouds and Meteorology in WRF-Chem.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(23),13576-13592. |
MLA | Ryu, Young-Hee,et al."Toward a Better Regional Ozone Forecast Over CONUS Using Rapid Data Assimilation of Clouds and Meteorology in WRF-Chem".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.23(2019):13576-13592. |
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