资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

A 16-year Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission convective feature (CF) data set and ERA-Interim reanalysis data are used to examine the nonlinear relationships between thermodynamic environments and the probability of high-flash rate thunderstorms. First, Bayesian-like probability functions are established between preselected ERA-Interim thermodynamic variables and the high-flash rate CFs. Then, the global geographical distribution of high-flash rate thunderstorms is validated by applying these functions to the reanalysis data. The results suggest that a sole environmental factor has limited skill to estimate the probability of these events. The combination of four variables, including Convective Available Potential Energy, convection inhibition, low-level shear, and warm cloud depth, may be used to derive a geographical distribution of high-flash rate events that is close to the observations. The strong land-ocean contrast in the frequency of high-flash rate thunderstorms and some hot spot regions can be closely reproduced based only on these four variables from the reanalysis data. This indicates that the land-ocean contrast in the occurrence of high-flash rate thunderstorms can be largely interpreted by the fundamental differences between the thermodynamic conditions over land and ocean.