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DOI | 10.1029/2018JD029927 |
The Application of the SVD Method to Reduce Coupled Model Biases in Seasonal Predictions of Rainfall | |
Lin, Renping1; Zhu, Jiang1; Zheng, Fei1,2 | |
2019-11-22 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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ISSN | 2169-897X |
EISSN | 2169-8996 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 124期号:22页码:11837-11849 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | The large systematic biases in coupled models impact seasonal prediction results. With a motivation to reduce the influence of coupled-model biases on seasonal predictions, the singular value decomposition method was applied in our study to improve the ability to predict flood season precipitation. Based on the coupled climate model, CAS-ESM-C, we conducted ensemble seasonal prediction experiments from 1982 to 2018, with initial conditions provided by the assimilation system. The prediction system was integrated from March to August of each year with a focus on the June to August precipitation in China. The results showed that the prediction skills for anomalous summer precipitation were very low without bias corrections. However, the system effectively predicted the interannual variabilities in large-scale atmospheric circulation systems that were associated with anomalous summer precipitation. We used the singular value decomposition method to reduce pattern-dependent precipitation errors by replacing prediction patterns with observation patterns, and the predictive skill for precipitation dramatically improved. The results demonstrated that this correction method is a viable tool to reduce systematic biases in coupled model predictions. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000497949900001 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL ; INTERANNUAL PREDICTION ; PHYSICAL-MECHANISMS ; DECADAL VARIATION ; CHINA ; PACIFIC ; VARIABILITY ; ERROR |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225800 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Int Ctr Climate & Environm Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lin, Renping,Zhu, Jiang,Zheng, Fei. The Application of the SVD Method to Reduce Coupled Model Biases in Seasonal Predictions of Rainfall[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2019,124(22):11837-11849. |
APA | Lin, Renping,Zhu, Jiang,&Zheng, Fei.(2019).The Application of the SVD Method to Reduce Coupled Model Biases in Seasonal Predictions of Rainfall.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,124(22),11837-11849. |
MLA | Lin, Renping,et al."The Application of the SVD Method to Reduce Coupled Model Biases in Seasonal Predictions of Rainfall".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 124.22(2019):11837-11849. |
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