Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0259.1 |
Climatological Changes in the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations | |
Michaelis, Allison C.1; Lackmann, Gary M.2 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:24页码:8733-8753 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing extratropical transition (ET) can develop into intense cyclonic systems accompanied by high-impact weather in areas far removed from the original TC. This study presents an analysis of multiseasonal global simulations representative of present-day and projected future climates using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A), with high resolution (15-km grid) throughout the Northern Hemisphere. TCs are tracked as minima in sea level pressure (SLP) accompanied by a warm core, and TC tracks are extended into the extratropical phase based on local minima in SLP and use of a cyclone phase space method. The present-day simulations adequately represent observed ET characteristics such as frequency, location, and seasonal cycles throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The most significant changes in future ET events occur in the North Atlantic (NATL) basin. Here, a more favorable background environment, a shift toward stronger TC warm cores in the lower troposphere, and a significant poleward shift in TC location lead to a similar to 40% increase in the number of NATL ET events and a similar to 6% increase in the fraction of TCs undergoing ET. This equates to approximately 1-2 additional ET events per year in this region. In the future simulations, ET in the NATL occurs markedly farther north by similar to 4 degrees-5 degrees N, and the resultant extratropical cyclones are stronger by similar to 6 hPa. These changes hold potentially important implications for areas directly affected by ET events, such as eastern North America, as well as for regions indirectly impacted by downstream effects, including western Europe. |
英文关键词 | Atmosphere Tropical cyclones Climate change Numerical analysis modeling |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000500226400002 |
WOS关键词 | WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; PART I ; CONSISTENT TIME ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; LIFE-CYCLE ; ATLANTIC ; MODEL ; HURRICANES ; INTENSITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225665 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Scripps Inst Oceanog, Ctr Western Weather & Water Extremes, La Jolla, CA 92037 USA; 2.North Carolina State Univ, Dept Marine Earth & Atmospher Sci, Raleigh, NC USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Michaelis, Allison C.,Lackmann, Gary M.. Climatological Changes in the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(24):8733-8753. |
APA | Michaelis, Allison C.,&Lackmann, Gary M..(2019).Climatological Changes in the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(24),8733-8753. |
MLA | Michaelis, Allison C.,et al."Climatological Changes in the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones in High-Resolution Global Simulations".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.24(2019):8733-8753. |
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