Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0184.1 |
Effects of Memory Biases on Variability of Temperature Reconstructions | |
Lucke, Lucie J.1; Hegerl, Gabriele C.1; Schurer, Andrew1; Wilson, Rob2,3 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE |
ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:24页码:8713-8731 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; USA |
英文摘要 | Quantifying past climate variation and attributing its causes improves our understanding of the natural variability of the climate system. Tree-ring-based proxies have provided skillful and highly resolved reconstructions of temperature and hydroclimate of the last millennium. However, like all proxies, they are subject to uncertainties arising from varying data quality, coverage, and reconstruction methodology. Previous studies have suggested that biological-based memory processes could cause spectral biases in climate reconstructions. This study determines the effects of such biases on reconstructed temperature variability and the resultant implications for detection and attribution studies. We find that introducing persistent memory, reflecting the spectral properties of tree-ring data, can change the variability of pseudoproxy reconstructions compared to the surrogate climate and resolve certain model-proxy discrepancies. This is especially the case for proxies based on ring-width data. Such memory inflates the difference between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age and suppresses and extends the cooling in response to volcanic eruptions. When accounting for memory effects, climate model data can reproduce long-term cooling after volcanic eruptions, as seen in proxy reconstructions. Results of detection and attribution studies show that signals in reconstructions as well as residual unforced variability are consistent with those in climate models when the model fingerprints are adjusted to reflect autoregressive memory as found in tree rings. |
英文关键词 | Surface temperature Tree rings Spectral analysis models distribution Hindcasts Climate variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000500226400001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE FORCING RECONSTRUCTIONS ; TREE-RING WIDTH ; LAST MILLENNIUM ; VOLCANIC-ERUPTIONS ; BLUE INTENSITY ; HEMISPHERIC TEMPERATURE ; NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE ; PMIP SIMULATIONS ; MODELS ; DENSITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225664 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.Univ St Andrews, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, St Andrews, Fife, Scotland; 3.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Tree Ring Lab, Palisades, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lucke, Lucie J.,Hegerl, Gabriele C.,Schurer, Andrew,et al. Effects of Memory Biases on Variability of Temperature Reconstructions[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(24):8713-8731. |
APA | Lucke, Lucie J.,Hegerl, Gabriele C.,Schurer, Andrew,&Wilson, Rob.(2019).Effects of Memory Biases on Variability of Temperature Reconstructions.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(24),8713-8731. |
MLA | Lucke, Lucie J.,et al."Effects of Memory Biases on Variability of Temperature Reconstructions".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.24(2019):8713-8731. |
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