Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0055.1 |
Predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from Initialized Simulations | |
Si, Dong1,2; Hu, Aixue3; Wang, Huijun1,2; Chao, Qingchen4 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
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ISSN | 0894-8755 |
EISSN | 1520-0442 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 32期号:24页码:8701-8711 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | In contrast to dominant interannual time-scale variability in other ocean basins, the leading observed mode variability in the Atlantic is characterized as a basinwide seesaw-like sea surface temperature variability between the North and South Atlantic on a multidecadal time scale (approximately 60-80 years), known as the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV). AMV has been identified as a key driver for climate shifts that occurred in the mid-1960s and late 1990s. Here we attempt to predict the summer AMV by analyzing decadal prediction experiments from two climate models. Results show that these climate models with proper initialization do a better job than uninitialized historical runs, and are capable of predicting the observed AMV time evolution. Our models predict that the AMV will be in a neutral to slightly negative phase, leading to a warm-dry trend over western Europe and North Africa and a cold-wet trend (cold relative to the warming trend) over southeastern China and Indochina in the next few years. |
英文关键词 | North Atlantic Ocean Climate prediction Model initialization Climate variability Multidecadal variability |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000500225100001 |
WOS关键词 | MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION ; NORTHERN NORTH-ATLANTIC ; SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; DECADAL PREDICTION ; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; SYSTEM MODEL ; CLIMATE ; AEROSOLS ; OSCILLATION ; RAINFALL |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225663 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Climate Change Res Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Div, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 4.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Si, Dong,Hu, Aixue,Wang, Huijun,et al. Predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from Initialized Simulations[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2019,32(24):8701-8711. |
APA | Si, Dong,Hu, Aixue,Wang, Huijun,&Chao, Qingchen.(2019).Predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from Initialized Simulations.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,32(24),8701-8711. |
MLA | Si, Dong,et al."Predicting the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from Initialized Simulations".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 32.24(2019):8701-8711. |
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