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DOI | 10.1002/joc.6415 |
Optimal configuration and resolution for the first convection-permitting ensemble of climate projections over the United Kingdom | |
Fosser, Giorgia1; Kendon, Elizabeth1; Chan, Steven2; Lock, Adrian1; Roberts, Nigel1; Bush, Mike1 | |
2019-12-17 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
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ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | Convection-permitting models (CPMs) provide a better representation of sub-daily precipitation statistics and convective processes on both climate and weather forecasting timescales. This study aims to establish what horizontal resolution and physical process settings are suitable for the first ensemble of convection-permitting climate projections for the United Kingdom. For this purpose, 12-year-long simulations were run using three different convection-permitting resolutions (grid spacing of 4 km, 2.2 km and 1.5 km) each with several configurations. The focus is on the ability to represent sub-daily precipitation due to its potential for high impacts on society through flooding. The analysis shows that the use of a finer grid spacing within the convection-permitting regime improves the representation of sub-daily precipitation but the added value decreases as the grid becomes increasingly finer, while the computational costs substantially increase. Changes in the representation of physical processes can have as much impact as the grid spacing and can lead to similar differences in the diurnal cycle as between convection-parametrized models and CPMs. Although the 4km model shows some key deficiencies that make it unreliable for climate projection, the 2.2km model performs as well as the 1.5km model for most of the metrics examined with considerable benefits in terms of computer cost. The optimal configuration and resolution identified here is being used for an ensemble of simulations run within the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project, which allows, for the first time, an estimate of uncertainty in future changes at convection-permitting scale and providing more reliable climate change projections at local and hourly scales. |
英文关键词 | climate convection-permitting models physical process configuration rainfall UKCP18 ensemble |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000502944900001 |
WOS关键词 | QUALITY-CONTROL ; PRECIPITATION ; MODEL ; RAINFALL ; SCHEME ; SIMULATION ; FORECASTS ; REPRESENTATION ; VERIFICATION ; GENERATION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225524 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Fitzroy Rd, Exeter, Devon, England; 2.Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Fosser, Giorgia,Kendon, Elizabeth,Chan, Steven,et al. Optimal configuration and resolution for the first convection-permitting ensemble of climate projections over the United Kingdom[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Fosser, Giorgia,Kendon, Elizabeth,Chan, Steven,Lock, Adrian,Roberts, Nigel,&Bush, Mike.(2019).Optimal configuration and resolution for the first convection-permitting ensemble of climate projections over the United Kingdom.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Fosser, Giorgia,et al."Optimal configuration and resolution for the first convection-permitting ensemble of climate projections over the United Kingdom".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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