Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/joc.6357 |
Skill and uncertainty in surface wind fields from general circulation models: Intercomparison of bias between AGCM, AOGCM and ESM global simulations | |
Morim, Joao1,2; Hemer, Mark2; Andutta, Fernando1; Shimura, Tomoya3; Cartwright, Nick1 | |
2019-11-19 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia; Japan |
英文摘要 | Understanding the reliability of global climate models (GCMs) to reproduce the historical surface wind fields is integral part of building robust projections of surface wind-climate, and other wind-dependent geophysical climatic variables. Understanding the skill of atmosphere-only models (AGCM), coupled atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCM) and fully coupled earth system models (ESM) is likewise paramount to assess any systematic model improvements. In this paper, we systematically assess whether surface wind fields obtained from 28 CMIP5 GCMs can represent large-scale spatial patterns and temporal variability of historical surface winds. We show that inter-model uncertainty is typically 2-4 times larger than the uncertainty associated with GCM internal variability, although the latter can be significant within specific regions. We also find that CMIP5 models are typically capable of reliably reproducing large-scale spatial patterns of historical near-surface winds, but considerable uncertainty lies within the CMIP5 ensemble with strong latitudinal dependence. CMIP5 models show limitations in their ability to reliably represent inter-annual and inter-seasonal variability particularly within tropical-cyclone-affected regions. In further analysis, we quantify and intercompare historical wind bias from different types of models with different dynamical cores, based on multiple CMIP5 diagnostic experiments. We find that bias in surface wind fields are largely intrinsic to the atmospheric components of the models, and that the inclusion of carbon-cycle dynamics has insignificant effect on simulated surface winds (at decadal time-scales). Inconsistencies between AGCM and AOGCM simulations are largely driven by errors in sea surface temperatures (SST); though such differences are not statistically significant relative to the inter-model uncertainty within the CMIP5 ensemble. These results show that the dominant source of bias in simulated wind fields lies in the underlying physics of the atmospheric component of the models. |
英文关键词 | atmosphere-ocean coupling carbon-cycle dynamics GCM surface wind fields uncertainty |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000497113800001 |
WOS关键词 | CLIMATE MODELS ; CMIP5 ; OCEAN ; PROJECTIONS ; ATMOSPHERE ; ATLANTIC ; PERFORMANCE ; COMPONENTS ; ENSEMBLE ; SPEED |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225452 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Griffith Univ, Griffith Sch Engn & Built Environm, Gold Coast, Qld, Australia; 2.CSIRO, Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 3.Kyoto Univ, Disaster Prevent Res Inst, Kyoto, Japan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Morim, Joao,Hemer, Mark,Andutta, Fernando,et al. Skill and uncertainty in surface wind fields from general circulation models: Intercomparison of bias between AGCM, AOGCM and ESM global simulations[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Morim, Joao,Hemer, Mark,Andutta, Fernando,Shimura, Tomoya,&Cartwright, Nick.(2019).Skill and uncertainty in surface wind fields from general circulation models: Intercomparison of bias between AGCM, AOGCM and ESM global simulations.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY. |
MLA | Morim, Joao,et al."Skill and uncertainty in surface wind fields from general circulation models: Intercomparison of bias between AGCM, AOGCM and ESM global simulations".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2019). |
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