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DOI | 10.1002/joc.6122 |
Downscaling climate change of mean climatology and extremes of precipitation and temperature: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin | |
Zhang, Rong1,2,3,4; Corte-Real, Joao1,2,5; Moreira, Madalena1; Kilsby, Chris6; Burton, Aidan6; Fowler, Hayley J.6; Blenkinsop, Stephen6; Birkinshaw, Stephen6; Forsythe, Nathan6; Nunes, Joao P.5,7; Sampaio, Elsa1,2,8 | |
2019-11-15 | |
发表期刊 | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY |
ISSN | 0899-8418 |
EISSN | 1097-0088 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 39期号:13页码:4985-5005 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Portugal; Brazil; Peoples R China; England |
英文摘要 | Downscaling is usually necessary for robust hydrological impact assessments. This may be undertaken using a wide range of methods, including a combination of dynamical and statistical-stochastic downscaling. This study uses the Spatial-Temporal Neyman-Scott Rectangular Pulses model-RainSimV3, the precipitation-conditioned daily weather generator-ICAAM-WG, and the change factor approach for downscaling synthetic climate scenarios for robust hydrological impact assessment at middle-sized basins. The ICAAM-WG was developed based on the concept of the Climate Research Unit daily weather generator (CRU-WG), motivated by the need for improved representation of heat waves by downscaling methods given the positive feedback between low soil moisture and high air temperature. We demonstrated the validity of the proposed methodology in the 705-km(2) Mediterranean climate basin in southern Portugal. The results show that, for the control period 1980-2010, both RainSimV3 and ICAAM-WG reproduced not only the mean climatology, but also extreme wet and low precipitation events, as well as the extremes of temperature and heat waves. We found that downscaling with ICAAM-WG (SIM6), which uses second-order autoregressive processes for the simulation of temperature during consecutive dry and wet days, outperformed ICAAM-WG (SIM4), which used only first-order autoregressive processes, leading to improved simulation of heat waves. ICAAM-WG (SIM6) well reproduced observed heatwave extremes with return periods of up to 30years; however, ICAAM-WG (SIM4) overestimated these extremes substantially. This indicates the importance of incorporating second-order autoregressive processes in the simulation of heatwave length. In the context of climate warming, the proposed methodology provides a tool to improve downscaled projections of future extremes with confidence intervals for not only wet events but also dry spells and heat waves. |
英文关键词 | dry spell heat wave hydrological impact assessment Mediterranean climate precipitation model second-order autoregressive process weather generator |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000492795100006 |
WOS关键词 | STOCHASTIC WEATHER GENERATOR ; MODEL OUTPUTS ; HEAT WAVES ; SEDIMENT YIELD ; RAINFALL ; IMPACTS ; VARIABILITY ; PORTUGAL ; SIMULATION ; FREQUENCY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225429 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Evora, Inst Mediterranean Agr & Environm Sci, Evora, Portugal; 2.Univ Lusofona Humanities & Technol, DREAMS Ctr Interdisciplinary Dev & Res Environm, Appl Management & Space, Lisbon, Portugal; 3.CEMADEN Natl Ctr Monitoring & Early Warning Nat D, Dept Hydrol, Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil; 4.Nanjing Hydraul Res Inst, Dept Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Aveiro, Dept Environm & Planning, CESAM Ctr Environm & Marine Res, Aveiro, Portugal; 6.Newcastle Univ, Sch Engn, Water Resource Syst Res Lab, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England; 7.Univ Lisbon, Fac Ciencias, CE3C, Lisbon, Portugal; 8.Univ Evora, Sch Sci & Technol, Dept Geosci, Evora, Portugal |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Rong,Corte-Real, Joao,Moreira, Madalena,et al. Downscaling climate change of mean climatology and extremes of precipitation and temperature: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2019,39(13):4985-5005. |
APA | Zhang, Rong.,Corte-Real, Joao.,Moreira, Madalena.,Kilsby, Chris.,Burton, Aidan.,...&Sampaio, Elsa.(2019).Downscaling climate change of mean climatology and extremes of precipitation and temperature: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,39(13),4985-5005. |
MLA | Zhang, Rong,et al."Downscaling climate change of mean climatology and extremes of precipitation and temperature: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY 39.13(2019):4985-5005. |
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