Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1111/gcb.14887 |
Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs | |
Doelman, Jonathan C.1,2; Stehfest, Elke1; van Vuuren, Detlef P.1,2; Tabeau, Andrzej3; Hof, Andries F.1,2; Braakhekke, Maarten C.4; Gernaat, David E. H. J.1,2; van den Berg, Maarten1; van Zeist, Willem-Jan1; Daioglou, Vassilis1,2; van Meijl, Hans3; Lucas, Paul L.1,2 | |
2019-11-29 | |
发表期刊 | GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY |
ISSN | 1354-1013 |
EISSN | 1365-2486 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Netherlands |
英文摘要 | Afforestation is considered a cost-effective and readily available climate change mitigation option. In recent studies afforestation is presented as a major solution to limit climate change. However, estimates of afforestation potential vary widely. Moreover, the risks in global mitigation policy and the negative trade-offs with food security are often not considered. Here we present a new approach to assess the economic potential of afforestation with the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model framework. In addition, we discuss the role of afforestation in mitigation pathways and the effects of afforestation on the food system under increasingly ambitious climate targets. We show that afforestation has a mitigation potential of 4.9 GtCO(2)/year at 200 US$/tCO(2) in 2050 leading to large-scale application in an SSP2 scenario aiming for 2 degrees C (410 GtCO(2) cumulative up to 2100). Afforestation reduces the overall costs of mitigation policy. However, it may lead to lower mitigation ambition and lock-in situations in other sectors. Moreover, it bears risks to implementation and permanence as the negative emissions are increasingly located in regions with high investment risks and weak governance, for example in Sub-Saharan Africa. Afforestation also requires large amounts of land (up to 1,100 Mha) leading to large reductions in agricultural land. The increased competition for land could lead to higher food prices and an increased population at risk of hunger. Our results confirm that afforestation has substantial potential for mitigation. At the same time, we highlight that major risks and trade-offs are involved. Pathways aiming to limit climate change to 2 degrees C or even 1.5 degrees C need to minimize these risks and trade-offs in order to achieve mitigation sustainably. |
英文关键词 | afforestation climate change mitigation food security integrated assessment land-based mitigation negative emissions |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000499783000001 |
WOS关键词 | CARBON SEQUESTRATION ; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT ; BIOMASS ENERGY ; GLOBAL FORESTS ; EMISSIONS ; IMPACTS ; LAND ; ECOSYSTEM ; COSTS ; MODEL |
WOS类目 | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225292 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, POB 30314, NL-2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands; 2.Univ Utrecht, Copernicus Inst Sustainable Dev, Utrecht, Netherlands; 3.Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Econ Res, The Hague, Netherlands; 4.Wageningen Univ & Res, Wageningen Environm Res, The Hague, Netherlands |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Doelman, Jonathan C.,Stehfest, Elke,van Vuuren, Detlef P.,et al. Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2019. |
APA | Doelman, Jonathan C..,Stehfest, Elke.,van Vuuren, Detlef P..,Tabeau, Andrzej.,Hof, Andries F..,...&Lucas, Paul L..(2019).Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY. |
MLA | Doelman, Jonathan C.,et al."Afforestation for climate change mitigation: Potentials, risks and trade-offs".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY (2019). |
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