GSTDTAP
DOI10.1029/2019GL084763
Quantifying the Timescale and Strength of Southern Hemisphere Intraseasonal Stratosphere-troposphere Coupling
Saggioro, Elena1; Shepherd, Theodore G.2
2019-11-28
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN0094-8276
EISSN1944-8007
出版年2019
卷号46期号:22页码:13479-13487
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家England
英文摘要

The Southern Hemisphere zonal circulation manifests a downward influence of the stratosphere on the troposphere from late spring to early summer. However, the strength and timescale of the connection, given the stratospheric state, have not been explicitly quantified. Here, SH zonal wind reanalysis time series are analyzed with a methodology designed to detect the minimal set of statistical predictors of multiple interacting variables via conditional independence tests. Our results confirm from data that the variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is a predictor of the tropospheric eddy-driven jet between September and January. The vortex variability explains about 40% of monthly mean jet variability at a lead time of 1 month and can entirely account for the observed jet persistence. Our statistical model can quantitatively connect the multidecadal trends observed in the vortex and jet during the satellite era. This shows how short-term variability can help understand statistical links in long-term changes.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000505879600090
WOS关键词POLAR-NIGHT JET ; ANNULAR MODE ; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY ; PART I ; CIRCULATION ; PERSISTENCE ; PREDICTION ; BREAKDOWN ; NORTHERN
WOS类目Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向Geology
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225125
专题环境与发展全球科技态势
作者单位1.Univ Reading, Dept Math & Stat, Reading, Berks, England;
2.Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England
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GB/T 7714
Saggioro, Elena,Shepherd, Theodore G.. Quantifying the Timescale and Strength of Southern Hemisphere Intraseasonal Stratosphere-troposphere Coupling[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(22):13479-13487.
APA Saggioro, Elena,&Shepherd, Theodore G..(2019).Quantifying the Timescale and Strength of Southern Hemisphere Intraseasonal Stratosphere-troposphere Coupling.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(22),13479-13487.
MLA Saggioro, Elena,et al."Quantifying the Timescale and Strength of Southern Hemisphere Intraseasonal Stratosphere-troposphere Coupling".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.22(2019):13479-13487.
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