Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL085142 |
Areal Models for Spatially Coherent Trend Detection: The Case of British Peak River Flows | |
Prosdocimi, Ilaria1,2; Dupont, Emiko2; Augustin, Nicole H.2; Kjeldsen, Thomas R.3; Simpson, Dan P.4; Smith, Theresa R.2 | |
2019-11-28 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:22页码:13054-13061 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Italy; England; Canada |
英文摘要 | With increasing concerns on the impacts of climate change, there is wide interest in understanding whether hydrometric and environmental series display any sort of trend. Many studies however, focus on the analysis of highly variable individual series at each measuring location. We propose a novel and straightforward approach to trend detection, modelling the test statistic for trend at each location via an areal model in which the information across measuring locations is pooled together. We exemplify the method with a detailed study of change in high flows in Great Britain. Using areal models, we detect a statistically relevant signal for a positive trend across Great Britain in the recent decades. This evidence is also found when different temporal subsets of the records are analysed. Further, the model identifies areas where the increase has been higher or lower than average, thus providing a way to prioritise intervention. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000505879600044 |
WOS关键词 | PROBABILISTIC IMPACTS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FLOODS ; FREQUENCY ; PRECIPITATION ; VARIABILITY ; ENGLAND ; EUROPE ; UK |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225111 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Ca Foscari Univ Venice, Dept Environm Sci Informat & Stat, Venice, Italy; 2.Univ Bath, Dept Math Sci, Bath, Avon, England; 3.Univ Bath, Dept Architecture & Civil Engn, Bath, Avon, England; 4.Univ Toronto, Dept Stat Sci, Toronto, ON, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Prosdocimi, Ilaria,Dupont, Emiko,Augustin, Nicole H.,et al. Areal Models for Spatially Coherent Trend Detection: The Case of British Peak River Flows[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(22):13054-13061. |
APA | Prosdocimi, Ilaria,Dupont, Emiko,Augustin, Nicole H.,Kjeldsen, Thomas R.,Simpson, Dan P.,&Smith, Theresa R..(2019).Areal Models for Spatially Coherent Trend Detection: The Case of British Peak River Flows.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(22),13054-13061. |
MLA | Prosdocimi, Ilaria,et al."Areal Models for Spatially Coherent Trend Detection: The Case of British Peak River Flows".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.22(2019):13054-13061. |
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