Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL082987 |
A Road Map for Improving the Treatment of Uncertainties in High-Resolution Regional Carbon Flux Inverse Estimates | |
Feng, Sha1; Lauvaux, Thomas1,2; Keller, Klaus3,4; Davis, Kenneth J.1,4; Rayner, Peter5; Oda, Tomohiro6,7; Gurney, Kevin R.8 | |
2019-11-19 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:22页码:13461-13469 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; France; Australia |
英文摘要 | Atmospheric inversions allow us to estimate the terrestrial carbon sink by combining atmospheric observations with atmospheric transport models. However, these inverse estimates remain highly uncertain. Here we quantify uncertainties in simulations of North American atmospheric CO2 concentrations using a probabilistic approach. We demonstrate that uncertainty in fossil fuel emissions is a key factor in the uncertainty surrounding biospheric flux estimates. We show that atmospheric transport uncertainties in state-of-the-art numerical weather models diminish when averaged over time, while uncertainties in large-scale CO2 boundary inflow considerably impair our ability to quantify regional fluxes. Current estimates of the North America land sink that neglect the uncertainties in CO2 boundary inflow and fossil fuel emissions are likely overconfident. Our findings suggest that targeted use of new atmospheric observations and improved quantification of uncertainty components are a promising avenue to improve atmospheric inversions with the goal to refine estimates of biospheric CO2 fluxes on regional and continental scales. |
英文关键词 | Regional carbon flux CO2 modeling Uncertainty Fossil fuel emissions Boundary inflow Transport |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000497079800001 |
WOS关键词 | ATMOSPHERIC CO2 ; DIOXIDE EMISSIONS ; LAND ; SYSTEM ; BIOSPHERE ; INCREASE ; OCEANS ; CYCLE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225054 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Penn State Univ, Dept Meteorol & Atmospher Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 2.Univ Paris Saclay, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, CEA, CNRS,UVSQ,IPSL, Gif Sur Yvette, France; 3.Penn State Univ, Dept Geosci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 4.Penn State Univ, Earth & Environm Syst Inst, University Pk, PA 16802 USA; 5.Univ Melbourne, Sch Earth Sci, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 6.NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Global Modeling & Assimilat Off, Greenbelt, MD USA; 7.Univ Space Res Assoc, Goddard Earth Sci Technol & Res, Columbia, MD USA; 8.No Arizona Univ, Sch Informat Comp & Cyber Syst, Flagstaff, AZ USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feng, Sha,Lauvaux, Thomas,Keller, Klaus,et al. A Road Map for Improving the Treatment of Uncertainties in High-Resolution Regional Carbon Flux Inverse Estimates[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(22):13461-13469. |
APA | Feng, Sha.,Lauvaux, Thomas.,Keller, Klaus.,Davis, Kenneth J..,Rayner, Peter.,...&Gurney, Kevin R..(2019).A Road Map for Improving the Treatment of Uncertainties in High-Resolution Regional Carbon Flux Inverse Estimates.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(22),13461-13469. |
MLA | Feng, Sha,et al."A Road Map for Improving the Treatment of Uncertainties in High-Resolution Regional Carbon Flux Inverse Estimates".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.22(2019):13461-13469. |
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