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DOI | 10.1029/2019GL085159 |
Understanding the Signal-to-Noise Paradox with a Simple Markov Model | |
Zhang, Wei; Kirtman, Ben | |
2019-11-19 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:22页码:13308-13317 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | There is a growing list of examples for the existence of the signal-to-noise paradox, where in the ensemble-based climate prediction, the model ensemble mean forecast generally shows higher correlations with observations than with individual ensemble members. This seems to lead to a paradox that the model makes better predictions for the real world than predicting itself. Here we introduce a Markov model to represent the ensemble forecasts and reproduce the signal-to-noise paradox, which we argue is primarily dependent on the magnitude of the persistence and noise variance between the models and the corresponding observations. The monthly North Atlantic Oscillation indices based on uninitialized historical simulations of 40 CMIP5 models have been analyzed, suggesting that the signal-to-noise paradox is common in currently available coupled models, and the paradox is not due to problems with initialization processes used in the seasonal-to-decadal predictions in previous studies and is instead a general model problem. |
英文关键词 | Signal-to-noise paradox Climate prediction Markov model CMIP5 models Ensemble forecast |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000498313000001 |
WOS关键词 | NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION ; DECADAL PREDICTABILITY ; CLIMATE PREDICTABILITY ; SURFACE-TEMPERATURE ; ENSEMBLE PREDICTION ; NAO ; SKILL ; VARIABILITY ; FORECASTS ; PERSISTENCE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225051 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | Univ Miami, Rosenstiel Sch Marine & Atmospher Sci, 4600 Rickenbacker Causeway, Miami, FL 33149 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Wei,Kirtman, Ben. Understanding the Signal-to-Noise Paradox with a Simple Markov Model[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(22):13308-13317. |
APA | Zhang, Wei,&Kirtman, Ben.(2019).Understanding the Signal-to-Noise Paradox with a Simple Markov Model.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(22),13308-13317. |
MLA | Zhang, Wei,et al."Understanding the Signal-to-Noise Paradox with a Simple Markov Model".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.22(2019):13308-13317. |
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