Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL084637 |
The Relationship Between South Pacific Atmospheric Internal Variability and ENSO in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Phase-II Models | |
You, Yujia1,2; Furtado, Jason C.1 | |
2019-11-16 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:21页码:12398-12407 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Despite substantial progress made in the theoretical understanding and practical prediction of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), accurate predictions of particular ENSO characteristics (e.g., evolution, intensity, and spatial pattern) remain challenging. Using two models from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) Phase-II hindcasts, we find that the austral winter atmospheric internal variability is a key determinant of how the South Pacific atmospheric circulation responds to concurrent tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies. While this internal variability may not trigger ENSO onsets, it regulates the southeasterly trades and contributes to thermodynamic feedbacks that grow into an ENSO-like structure during the following austral summer. The difference in the simulation of South Pacific atmospheric variability amongst ensemble members appears to be a significant source of the inter-member spread in ENSO predictions. Monitoring South Pacific atmospheric variability provides an opportunity to improve the prediction of ENSO intensity and flavor with about a two-season lead time. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000501723000089 |
WOS关键词 | SEASONAL FOOTPRINTING MECHANISM ; EL-NINO ; MERIDIONAL MODE ; DECADAL VARIABILITY ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE ; SYSTEM MODEL ; OSCILLATION ; PREDICTION ; PRECURSOR |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/225032 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Oklahoma, Sch Meteorol, Norman, OK 73019 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Dept Earth & Environm Sci, Palisades, NY 10964 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | You, Yujia,Furtado, Jason C.. The Relationship Between South Pacific Atmospheric Internal Variability and ENSO in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Phase-II Models[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(21):12398-12407. |
APA | You, Yujia,&Furtado, Jason C..(2019).The Relationship Between South Pacific Atmospheric Internal Variability and ENSO in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Phase-II Models.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(21),12398-12407. |
MLA | You, Yujia,et al."The Relationship Between South Pacific Atmospheric Internal Variability and ENSO in the North American Multimodel Ensemble Phase-II Models".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.21(2019):12398-12407. |
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