Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019GL083519 |
Stratospheric Initial Condition for Skillful Surface Prediction in the ECMWF Model | |
Choi, Jung; Son, Seok-Woo | |
2019-11-08 | |
发表期刊 | GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 0094-8276 |
EISSN | 1944-8007 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 46期号:21页码:12556-12564 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | South Korea |
英文摘要 | The subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of boreal-winter sea-level pressure (SLP) is investigated by examining 19-year reforecast data sets from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system. Based on a pattern anomaly correlation coefficient of 0.6, the model reliably predicted the extratropical SLP anomalies with a maximum forecast lead time of 9.8 days. This prediction skill, however, varies significantly from one forecast to another. The forecasts with relatively high skills and those with low skills exhibit significant zonal Wavenumber 1 patterns in the stratospheric initial conditions with an opposite sign. The high-skill forecasts present a relatively weak westward Wavenumber 1 phase tilt with height compared with the low-skill forecasts, dampening an upward wave propagation in the stratosphere. This result suggests that not only the zonal mean but also the zonally asymmetric stratospheric conditions play an important role in extended surface prediction by modulating vertical wave propagation or wave reflection. |
英文关键词 | S2S prediction ECMWF ensemble prediction system Stratospheric initial conditions |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495179500001 |
WOS关键词 | LIFE-CYCLE ; TROPOSPHERE ; WEATHER ; WAVE |
WOS类目 | Geosciences, Multidisciplinary |
WOS研究方向 | Geology |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224981 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | Seoul Natl Univ, Sch Earth & Environm Sci, Seoul, South Korea |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Choi, Jung,Son, Seok-Woo. Stratospheric Initial Condition for Skillful Surface Prediction in the ECMWF Model[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,46(21):12556-12564. |
APA | Choi, Jung,&Son, Seok-Woo.(2019).Stratospheric Initial Condition for Skillful Surface Prediction in the ECMWF Model.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,46(21),12556-12564. |
MLA | Choi, Jung,et al."Stratospheric Initial Condition for Skillful Surface Prediction in the ECMWF Model".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 46.21(2019):12556-12564. |
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