Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1016/j.foreco.2018.08.028 |
Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests | |
Thurm, Eric Andreas1; Hernandez, Laura2; Baltensweiler, Andri3; Ayan, Szegin4; Rasztovits, Ervin5; Bielak, Kamil6; Zlatanov, Tzvetan Mladenov7; Hladnik, David8,9; Balic, Besim10; Freudenschuss, Alexandra11; Buechsenmeister, Richard11; Falk, Wolfgang1 | |
2018-12-15 | |
发表期刊 | FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT |
ISSN | 0378-1127 |
EISSN | 1872-7042 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 430页码:485-497 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Spain; Switzerland; Turkey; Hungary; Poland; Bulgaria; Slovenia; Bosnia & Herceg; Austria |
英文摘要 | This study estimates the present and future distribution potential of 12 thermophilic and rare tree species for Europe based on climate-soil sensitive species distribution models (SDMs), and compares them to the two major temperate and boreal tree species (Fops sylvatica and Picea abies). We used European national forest inventory data with 1.3 million plots to predict the distribution of the 12 + 2 tree species in Europe today and under future warming scenarios of +2.9 and +4.5 degrees C. The SDMs that were used to calculate the distributions were in a first step only given climate variables for explanation. In a second step, deviations which could not be explained by the climate models were tested in an additional soil variable-based model. Site-index models were applied to the found species distribution to estimate the growth performance (site index) under the given climate. We find a northward shift of 461 km and 697 km for the thermophilic species over the regarded time period from 2060 to 2080 under a warming scenario of 2.9 degrees C and 4.5 degrees C, respectively. Potential winners of climatic warming have their distribution centroid below 48 degrees N. Fagus sylvatica and Picea abies will lose great parts of their potential distribution range (approx. 55 and 60%, respectively). An index of area gain and growth performance revealed Ulmus laevis, Quercus rubra, Quercus cerris and Robinia pseudoacacia as interesting alternatives in managed temperate forests currently dominated by F. sylvatica and P. abies. The 12 investigated species are already in focus in forestry and it has been shown that the changing climate creates conditions for a targeted promotion in European forests. Nevertheless, area winners exhibited lower growth performances. So, forest conversion with these warm-adapted species goes hand in hand with loss of overall growth performance compared to current species composition. So, the results are a premise for a further discussion on the ecological consequences and the consistency with forest socio-economic goals and conservation policies. |
英文关键词 | Thermophilic Rare species Species distribution models Climate-soil models Site index models Winners & losers Northward shift Biogeographical regions |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000449137300047 |
WOS关键词 | OAK QUERCUS-RUBRA ; FIR PSEUDOTSUGA-MENZIESII ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; DOUGLAS-FIR ; DROUGHT TOLERANCE ; ABIES-ALBA ; GROWTH ; SHIFT ; CONSERVATION ; RESPONSES |
WOS类目 | Forestry |
WOS研究方向 | Forestry |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/22479 |
专题 | 气候变化 |
作者单位 | 1.Bavarian State Inst Forestry LWF, Dept Soil & Climate, Munich, Germany; 2.INIA CIFOR, Madrid, Spain; 3.Swiss Fed Inst Forts Snow & Landscape Res WSL, Dept Forest Resources & Management, Davos, Switzerland; 4.Kastamonu Univ, Fac Forestry, Dept Silviculture, Kastamonu, Turkey; 5.NARIC Forest Res Inst, Godollo, Hungary; 6.Warsaw Univ Life Sci, Dept Silviculture, Warsaw, Poland; 7.Bulgarian Acad Sci, Inst Biodivers & Ecosyst Res, Sofia, Bulgaria; 8.Univ Ljubljana, Biotech Fac, Dept Forestry & Renewable Forest Resources, Ljubljana, Slovenia; 9.Slovenian Forestry Inst, Ljubljana, Slovenia; 10.Fac Forestry Sarajevo, Forest Management & Urban Greenery, Sarajevo, Bosnia & Herceg; 11.Fed Res & Training Ctr Forests, Dept Nat Hazards & Landscape BFW, Vienna, Austria |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Thurm, Eric Andreas,Hernandez, Laura,Baltensweiler, Andri,et al. Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests[J]. FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,2018,430:485-497. |
APA | Thurm, Eric Andreas.,Hernandez, Laura.,Baltensweiler, Andri.,Ayan, Szegin.,Rasztovits, Ervin.,...&Falk, Wolfgang.(2018).Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests.FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,430,485-497. |
MLA | Thurm, Eric Andreas,et al."Alternative tree species under climate warming in managed European forests".FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 430(2018):485-497. |
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