Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4f96 |
A hybrid model approach for estimating health burden from NO2 in megacities in China: a case study in Guangzhou | |
He, Baihuiqian1,2; Heal, Mathew R.1; Humstad, Kamilla H.3; Yan, Liu4; Zhang, Qiang4; Reis, Stefan2,5 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; Peoples R China; England |
英文摘要 | Background: Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) poses substantial public health risks in large cities globally. Concentrations of NO2 shows high spatial variation, yet intra-urban measurements of NO2 in Chinese cities are sparse. The size of Chinese cities and shortage of some datasets is challenging for high spatial resolution modelling. The aim here was to combine advantages of dispersion and land-use regression (LUR) modelling to simulate population exposure to NO2 at high spatial resolution for health burden calculations, in the example megacity of Guangzhou. Methods: Ambient concentrations of NO2 simulated by the ADMS-Urban dispersion model at 83 ?virtual? monitoring sites, selected to span both the range of NO2 concentration and weighting by population density, were used to develop a LUR model of 2017 annual-mean NO2 across Guangzhou at 25 m25 m spatial resolution. Results: The LUR model was validated against both the 83 virtual sites (adj R-2: 0.96, RMSE: 5.48 ?g m(?3); LOOCV R-2: 0.96, RMSE: 5.64 ?g m(?3)) and, independently, against available observations (n=11, R-2:: 0.63, RMSE: 18.0 ?g m(?3)). The modelled population-weighted long-term average concentration of NO2 across Guangzhou was 52.5 ?g m(?3), which contributes an estimated 7270 (6960?7620) attributable deaths. Reducing concentrations in exceedance of the China air quality standard/WHO air quality guideline of 40 ?g m(?3) would reduce NO2-attributable deaths by 1900 (1820?1980). Conclusions: We demonstrate a general hybrid modelling method that can be employed in other cities in China to model ambient NO2 concentration at high spatial resolution for health burden estimation and epidemiological study. By running the dispersion model with alternative mitigation policies, new LUR models can be constructed to quantify policy effectiveness on NO2 population health burden. |
英文关键词 | LUR dispersion model NO2 health burden air quality |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000500784200001 |
WOS关键词 | AIR-QUALITY MANAGEMENT ; USE REGRESSION-MODELS ; NITROGEN-DIOXIDE ; GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ; POLLUTION EXPOSURE ; ADMS-URBAN ; MORTALITY ; EMISSIONS ; CITIES ; DISPERSION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224721 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Chem, Joseph Black Bldg,David Brewster Rd, Edinburgh EH9 3FJ, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.NERC Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB, Midlothian, Scotland; 3.Univ Edinburgh, Inst Geog, Sch GeoSci, Drummond St, Edinburgh EH8 9XP, Midlothian, Scotland; 4.Tsinghua Univ, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Key Lab Earth Syst Modeling, Minist Educ, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China; 5.Univ Exeter, Med Sch, European Ctr Environm & Hlth, Knowledge Spa, Truro TR1 3HD, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | He, Baihuiqian,Heal, Mathew R.,Humstad, Kamilla H.,et al. A hybrid model approach for estimating health burden from NO2 in megacities in China: a case study in Guangzhou[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(12). |
APA | He, Baihuiqian,Heal, Mathew R.,Humstad, Kamilla H.,Yan, Liu,Zhang, Qiang,&Reis, Stefan.(2019).A hybrid model approach for estimating health burden from NO2 in megacities in China: a case study in Guangzhou.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(12). |
MLA | He, Baihuiqian,et al."A hybrid model approach for estimating health burden from NO2 in megacities in China: a case study in Guangzhou".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.12(2019). |
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