Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1088/1748-9326/ab503c |
Changes in temperature extremes on the Tibetan Plateau and their attribution | |
Yin, Hong1; Sun, Ying1,2; Donat, Markus G.3 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS |
ISSN | 1748-9326 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 14期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; Spain |
英文摘要 | The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the largest and highest upland on Earth. Warming on the TP is faster than that in surrounding areas. Evaluating our understanding of the causes behind these changes provides a test of tools used for projections of future climate in the region. In this study, we analyse the observed changes in twelve extreme temperature indices and compare them with model simulations based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). An optimal fingerprinting method is used to perform detection and attribution analyses on the changes in absolute intensity, percentile-based frequency, fixed threshold exceedances of temperature extremes and diurnal temperature ranges in the central and eastern TP. The results show that during 1958-2017 the TP has experienced increasing intensity and frequency of warm extremes and decreasing intensity and frequency of cold extremes, with almost all these changes larger than those in China and East China. The detection results and attribution analyses show that the anthropogenic (ANT) signal can be robustly detected in the trends for all extreme indices on the TP, and the natural (NAT) signal in some cases, too. The attributable contribution from ANT is estimated to be much larger than that from NAT for most indices. The study also indicates that the CMIP5 models may underestimate the magnitude of warming in some temperature extremes, especially the indices related to cold extremes. This should be kept in mind when informing adaptation decisions on the TP with projections based on the same models. |
英文关键词 | detection and attribution Tibetan Plateau extreme temperatures anthropogenic forcing natural forcing |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000502782800001 |
WOS关键词 | SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURES ; ANTHROPOGENIC INFLUENCE ; INDEXES ; CMIP5 ; CLIMATE ; 20TH-CENTURY ; FREQUENCY ; EASTERN ; RANGE ; SET |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224712 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.China Meteorol Adm, Lab Climate Studies, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China; 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 3.Barcelona Supercomp Ctr, Barcelona, Spain |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Yin, Hong,Sun, Ying,Donat, Markus G.. Changes in temperature extremes on the Tibetan Plateau and their attribution[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2019,14(12). |
APA | Yin, Hong,Sun, Ying,&Donat, Markus G..(2019).Changes in temperature extremes on the Tibetan Plateau and their attribution.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(12). |
MLA | Yin, Hong,et al."Changes in temperature extremes on the Tibetan Plateau and their attribution".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.12(2019). |
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