资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

Using multiple proxy data of historical hydroclimate variations, this study first selects the five heaviest megadrought decades in North China during the last millennium and then depicts the spatial pattern of hydroclimate over the Northern Hemisphere through these five megadrought decades. The results shows that abnormally dry conditions existed in East Asia, North America, and Europe when megadroughts in North China during the last millennium. The intensity of dry conditions in North America was stronger than that in Europe. Then, through comparing the spatial patterns of hydroclimate from proxy data with ensemble modeling of nine CMIP5/PMIP3 models, we find that such megadroughts in North China, and the contemporaneously abnormal dry conditions over the Northern Hemisphere were very likely mainly induced by external forcing, i.e., large volcanic eruptions and weakened solar irradiation. These external forcing may lead to climate cooling and, hence, air motion downward at mid-lower layer of troposphere, inducing a much more stable troposphere; as well as, the land-ocean pressure differences were weakened, and, hence, there would be decreased water vapor flux from ocean to land. Both of intensified stability of troposphere and weakened vapor transportations to land would lead to precipitation decline and, as a result, would be favorable for drought. It is therefore necessary to consider these external forcing into future climate change predicting to improve our ability of predicting megadrought.