GSTDTAP
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3296-z
Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa
Shukla, Shraddhanand1; Roberts, Jason2; Hoell, Andrew3; Funk, Christopher C.1,4; Robertson, Franklin2; Kirtman, Ben5
2019-12-01
发表期刊CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
EISSN1432-0894
出版年2019
卷号53期号:12页码:7411-7427
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家USA
英文摘要

The skill of North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecasts in East Africa (EA), which encompasses one of the most food and water insecure areas of the world, is evaluated using deterministic, categorical, and probabilistic evaluation methods. The skill is estimated for all three primary growing seasons: March-May (MAM), July-September (JAS), and October-December (OND). It is found that the precipitation forecast skill in this region is generally limited and statistically significant over only a small part of the domain. In the case of MAM (JAS) [OND] season it exceeds the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of equatorial EA (Northern Ethiopia) [equatorial EA] for up to 2 (5) [5] months lead. Temperature forecast skill is generally much higher than precipitation forecast skill (in terms of deterministic and probabilistic skill scores) and statistically significant over a majority of the region. Over the region as a whole, temperature forecasts also exhibit greater reliability than the precipitation forecasts. The NMME ensemble forecasts are found to be more skillful and reliable than the forecast from any individual model. The results also demonstrate that for some seasons (e.g. JAS), the predictability of precipitation signals varies and is higher during certain climate events (e.g. ENSO). Finally, potential room for improvement in forecast skill is identified in some models by comparing homogeneous predictability in individual NMME models with their respective forecast skill.


领域气候变化
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000495247200018
WOS关键词SPATIAL-ANALYSIS ; RAINFALL ; PREDICTION ; DROUGHT ; TRENDS ; HORN ; PREDICTABILITY ; VARIABILITY ; PACIFIC
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
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文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224300
专题环境与发展全球科技态势
作者单位1.Univ Calif Santa Barbara, Climate Hazards Grp, Dept Geog, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 USA;
2.NASA, Marshall Space Flight Ctr, Huntsville, AL 35812 USA;
3.NOAA, Phys Sci Div, Earth Syst Res Lab, Boulder, CO USA;
4.US Geol Survey, EROS, Garretson, SD USA;
5.Univ Miami, Miami, FL USA
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Shukla, Shraddhanand,Roberts, Jason,Hoell, Andrew,et al. Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53(12):7411-7427.
APA Shukla, Shraddhanand,Roberts, Jason,Hoell, Andrew,Funk, Christopher C.,Robertson, Franklin,&Kirtman, Ben.(2019).Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(12),7411-7427.
MLA Shukla, Shraddhanand,et al."Assessing North American multimodel ensemble (NMME) seasonal forecast skill to assist in the early warning of anomalous hydrometeorological events over East Africa".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.12(2019):7411-7427.
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