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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3841-4 |
Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia | |
Cash, Benjamin A.; Manganello, Julia V.; Kinter, James L., III | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53期号:12页码:7363-7380 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Systematic error and forecast skill for temperature and precipitation in two regions of Southern Asia are investigated using hindcasts initialized May 1 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. We focus on two contiguous but geographically and dynamically diverse regions: the Extended Indian Monsoon Rainfall (70-100E, 10-30 N) and the nearby mountainous area of Pakistan and Afghanistan (60-75E, 23-39 N). Forecast skill is assessed using the Sign test framework, a rigorous statistical method that can be applied to non-Gaussian variables such as precipitation and to different ensemble sizes without introducing bias. We find that models show significant systematic error in both precipitation and temperature for both regions. The multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) consistently yields the lowest systematic error and the highest forecast skill for both regions and variables. However, we also find that the MMEM consistently provides a statistically significant increase in skill over climatology only in the first month of the forecast. While the MMEM tends to provide higher overall skill than climatology later in the forecast, the differences are not significant at the 95% level. We also find that MMEMs constructed with a relatively small number of ensemble members per model can equal or outperform MMEMs constructed with more members in skill. This suggests some ensemble members either provide no contribution to overall skill or even detract from it. |
英文关键词 | Monsoon ENSO Forecast skill |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495247200015 |
WOS关键词 | TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION ; INDIAN-SUMMER MONSOON ; POTENTIAL PREDICTABILITY ; ENSO PREDICTION ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; SYSTEM |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224297 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | George Mason Univ, Ctr Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, Fairfax, VA 22030 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Cash, Benjamin A.,Manganello, Julia V.,Kinter, James L., III. Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53(12):7363-7380. |
APA | Cash, Benjamin A.,Manganello, Julia V.,&Kinter, James L., III.(2019).Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(12),7363-7380. |
MLA | Cash, Benjamin A.,et al."Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.12(2019):7363-7380. |
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