Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3603-3 |
Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble | |
Barnston, Anthony G.1; 39;Heureux, Michelle L.2 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53期号:12页码:7215-7234 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Saudi Arabia |
英文摘要 | Hindcasts and real-time predictions of the east-central tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) from the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) system are verified for 1982-2015. Skill is examined using two deterministic verification measures: mean squared error skill score (MSESS) and anomaly correlation. Verification of eight individual models shows somewhat differing skills among them, with some models consistently producing more successful predictions than others. The skill levels of MME predictions are approximately the same as the two best performing individual models, and sometimes exceed both of them. A decomposition of the MSESS indicates the presence of calibration errors in some of the models. In particular, the amplitudes of some model predictions are too high when predictability is limited by the northern spring ENSO predictability barrier and/or when the interannual variability of the SST is near its seasonal minimum. The skill of the NMME system is compared to that of the MME from the IRI/CPC ENSO prediction plume, both for a comparable hindcast period and also for a set of real-time predictions spanning 2002-2011. Comparisons are made both between the MME predictions of each model group, and between the average of the skills of the respective individual models in each group. Acknowledging a hindcast versus real-time inconcsistency in the 2002-2012 skill comparison, the skill of the NMME is slightly higher than that of the prediction plume models in all cases. This result reflects well on the NMME system, with its large total ensemble size and opportunity for possible complementary contributions to skill. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495247200006 |
WOS关键词 | TO-INTERANNUAL PREDICTION ; SST ; FORECASTS ; SYSTEM ; PREDICTABILITY |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224288 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Columbia Univ, Earth Inst, Int Res Inst Climate & Soc, 65 Route 9W, Palisades, NY 10964 USA; 2.Columbia Univ, Dept Appl Phys & Appl Math, New York, NY USA; 3.King Abdulaziz Univ, Dept Meteorol, Ctr Excellence Climate Change Res, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; 4.Swarthmore Coll, Swarthmore, PA 19081 USA; 5.Natl Weather Serv, Climate Predict Ctr, NOAA, Natl Ctr Environm Predict, College Pk, MD USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Barnston, Anthony G.,39;Heureux, Michelle L.. Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53(12):7215-7234. |
APA | Barnston, Anthony G.,&39;Heureux, Michelle L..(2019).Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(12),7215-7234. |
MLA | Barnston, Anthony G.,et al."Deterministic skill of ENSO predictions from the North American Multimodel Ensemble".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.12(2019):7215-7234. |
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