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DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04956-1 |
Observable, low-order dynamical controls on thresholds of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation | |
Wood, Richard A.1; Rodriguez, Jose M.1; Smith, Robin S.2; Jackson, Laura C.1; Hawkins, Ed2 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53期号:11页码:6815-6834 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | England |
英文摘要 | We examine the dynamics of thresholds of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in an Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) and a simple box model. We show that AMOC thresholds in the AOGCM are controlled by low-order dynamics encapsulated in the box model. In both models, AMOC collapse is primarily initiated by the development of a strong salinity advection feedback in the North Atlantic. The box model parameters are potentially observable properties of the unperturbed (present day) ocean state, and when calibrated to a range of AOGCM states predict (within some error bars) the critical rate of fresh water input (H-crit) needed to turn off the AMOC in the AOGCM. In contrast, the meridional fresh water transport by the MOC (M-OV, a widely-used diagnostic of AMOC bi-stability) on its own is a poor predictor of H-crit. When the AOGCM is run with increased atmospheric carbon dioxide, H-crit increases. We use the dynamical understanding from the box model to show that this increase is due partly to intensification of the global hydrological cycle and heat penetration into the near-surface ocean, both robust features of climate change projections. However changes in the gyre fresh water transport efficiency (a less robustly modelled process) are also important. |
英文关键词 | Atlantic meridional overturning circulation Thresholds Climate change Dynamics Fresh water |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494681900018 |
WOS关键词 | MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA REGIME ; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; CLIMATE MODEL ; HEAT TRANSPORTS ; COUPLED MODEL ; GLOBAL OCEAN ; FLUX ; STABILITY ; VERSION ; IMPACTS |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224265 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Met Off Hadley Ctr, FitzRoy Rd, Exeter EX1 3PB, Devon, England; 2.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 7BE, Berks, England |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wood, Richard A.,Rodriguez, Jose M.,Smith, Robin S.,et al. Observable, low-order dynamical controls on thresholds of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53(11):6815-6834. |
APA | Wood, Richard A.,Rodriguez, Jose M.,Smith, Robin S.,Jackson, Laura C.,&Hawkins, Ed.(2019).Observable, low-order dynamical controls on thresholds of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(11),6815-6834. |
MLA | Wood, Richard A.,et al."Observable, low-order dynamical controls on thresholds of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.11(2019):6815-6834. |
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