Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-04955-2 |
Quantifying the importance of interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates | |
Wei, Meng1,2,3; Qiao, Fangli1,2,3; Guo, Yongqing4; Deng, Jia1,2,3; Song, Zhenya1,2,3; Shu, Qi1,2,3; Yang, Xiaodan1,2,3 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 53期号:11页码:6715-6727 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China |
英文摘要 | Despite the monotonically rising greenhouse gas emission, global warming rate changes again and again, especially the slowdown during 1998-2013, challenging the current global temperature change mechanisms. Recently, different-scale natural climate variabilities have been individually recognized as the potential causes of global warming rate change, particularly the recent warming slowdown, but disagreements still exist on their relative importance. Here we quantify the contribution of interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal variabilities (IAV, IDV and MDV) in modulating the global warming rate during the period 1850-2017 via decomposing the global mean temperature timeseries derived from 12 datasets into several quasi-periodic fluctuations and a monotonical secular trend (ST) using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. Our results show that the IAV, IDV and MDV dominate the global warming rate change together, rather than one-scale variability alone. For example, during 1998-2013 both the IAV and IDV present obvious negative trends and combine to cut 59 +/- 22% of global mean surface temperature (GMST) and 65 +/- 38% of sea surface temperature (SST) positive trends which are caused by the steadily warming ST and the warming phase of MDV, thus causing an apparent warming slowdown during this period. Furthermore, we illustrate that the IAV, IDV and MDV mainly originate from the El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), respectively. Our work partly reconciles the controversy over the importance of different-scale natural variabilities, and provides some insights for climate change attribution and prediction research. |
英文关键词 | Global warming slowdown Hiatus Natural climate variability ENSO PDO AMO |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000494681900013 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EMPIRICAL MODE DECOMPOSITION ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; DECADAL CHANGES ; HIATUS ; OSCILLATION ; CIRCULATION ; SLOWDOWN ; EVOLUTION |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224260 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Minist Nat Resources Peoples Republ China, Inst Oceanog 1, 6 Xianxialing Rd, Qingdao 266061, Shandong, Peoples R China; 2.Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Lab Reg Oceanog & Numer Modeling, Qingdao 266237, Shandong, Peoples R China; 3.Minist Nat Resources Peoples Republ China, Key Lab Marine Sci & Numer Modeling, Qingdao 266061, Shandong, Peoples R China; 4.Zhejiang Ocean Univ, Marine Sci & Technol Coll, 1 Haida South Rd, Lincheng Changzhi Isl 316000, Zhoushan, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Wei, Meng,Qiao, Fangli,Guo, Yongqing,et al. Quantifying the importance of interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,53(11):6715-6727. |
APA | Wei, Meng.,Qiao, Fangli.,Guo, Yongqing.,Deng, Jia.,Song, Zhenya.,...&Yang, Xiaodan.(2019).Quantifying the importance of interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,53(11),6715-6727. |
MLA | Wei, Meng,et al."Quantifying the importance of interannual, interdecadal and multidecadal climate natural variabilities in the modulation of global warming rates".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 53.11(2019):6715-6727. |
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