资源环境科技发展态势分析平台

The climate of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is being affected not only by the global increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) but also by the ongoing recovery of stratospheric ozone. The competing roles of both are usually studied by means of state-of-the-art global climate models (GCM) due to the complexity in the atmospheric processes and interactions involved. The main objective of this paper is to determine whether quantitatively similar results can be achieved using a simpler, medium-complexity GCM. This includes addressing the sensitivity of the medium-complexity model to changes in GHG and ozone concentrations as well as looking into the plausible mechanisms driving such patterns of variations in atmospheric circulation, precipitation and temperature extremes. Two sets of simulations are performed: one with fixed sea surface temperatures (SST) and another one making use of a mixed-layer ocean model coupled to the GCM. Results show that the GCM is highly sensitive to changes in the atmospheric composition, and that the largest differences are found when SST are allowed to vary accordingly, particularly in the case of temperature extremes. Specific analyses are also performed on changes in subtropical precipitation over the continental regions of the SH, with moisture budget decomposition being applied in order to provide explanations for the rainfall changes described in the manuscript.