Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-05036-0 |
Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Nino events dynamics in the warming climate | |
Carreric, Aude1,2; Dewitte, Boris1,3,4,5; Cai, Wenju6,7,8; Capotondi, Antonietta9,10; Takahashi, Ken11; Yeh, Sang-Wook12; Wang, Guojian6,7,8; Guemas, Virginie13 | |
2019-11-09 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS |
ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France; Spain; Chile; Peoples R China; Australia; USA; Peru; South Korea |
英文摘要 | While there is evidence that ENSO activity will increase in association with the increased vertical stratification due to global warming, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we investigate this issue using the simulations of the NCAR Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) Project focusing on strong El Nino events of the Eastern Pacific (EP) that can be associated to flooding in Northern and Central Peru. It is shown that, in the warmer climate, the duration of strong EP El Nino events peaking in boreal winter is extended by two months, which results in significantly more events peaking in February-March-April (FMA), the season when the climatological Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone is at its southernmost location. This larger persistence of strong EP events is interpreted as resulting from both a stronger recharge process and a more effective thermocline feedback in the eastern equatorial Pacific due to increased mean vertical stratification. A heat budget analysis reveals in particular that the reduction in seasonal upwelling rate is compensated by the increase in anomalous vertical temperature gradient within the surface layer, yielding an overall increase in the effectiveness of the thermocline feedback. In CESM-LE, the appearance of strong EP El Nino events peaking in FMA accounts for one-quarter of the increase in frequency of occurrence of ENSO-induced extreme precipitation events, while one-third results from weak-to-moderate El Nino events that triggers extreme precipitation events because of the warmer mean SST becoming closer to the convective threshold. In CESM-LE, both the increase in mean EP SST and the change in ENSO processes thus contribute to the increase in extreme precipitation events in the warmer climate. |
英文关键词 | CESM-LE Extreme El Nino event Climate change Vertical stratification |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495286300001 |
WOS关键词 | SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; EQUATORIAL PACIFIC ; DECADAL VARIABILITY ; VERTICAL STRUCTURE ; CHANGE PROJECTIONS ; MERIDIONAL MODES ; SYSTEM MODEL ; LA-NINA ; PART I ; ENSO |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224230 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Toulouse, CNRS, CNES, IRD,UPS,LEGOS, Toulouse, France; 2.BSC, Barcelona, Spain; 3.CEAZA, La Serena, Chile; 4.Univ Catolica Norte, Fac Ciencias Mar, Coquimbo, Chile; 5.Millennium Nucleus Ecol & Sustainable Management, Coquimbo, Chile; 6.Ocean Univ China, Inst Adv Ocean Studies, Key Lab Phys Oceanog, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China; 7.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China; 8.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, CSHOR, Hobart, Tas, Australia; 9.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO USA; 10.NOAA, Earth Syst Res Lab, Phys Sci Div, Boulder, CO USA; 11.Serv Nacl Meteorol & Hidrol Peru SENAMH, Lima, Peru; 12.Hanyang Univ, Dept Marine Sci & Convergent Technol, Ansan, South Korea; 13.CNRS, CNRM, Meteo France, UMR 3589, Toulouse, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Carreric, Aude,Dewitte, Boris,Cai, Wenju,et al. Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Nino events dynamics in the warming climate[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019. |
APA | Carreric, Aude.,Dewitte, Boris.,Cai, Wenju.,Capotondi, Antonietta.,Takahashi, Ken.,...&Guemas, Virginie.(2019).Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Nino events dynamics in the warming climate.CLIMATE DYNAMICS. |
MLA | Carreric, Aude,et al."Change in strong Eastern Pacific El Nino events dynamics in the warming climate".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019). |
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