Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1007/s00382-019-05016-4 |
ENSO modulation: real and apparent; implications for decadal prediction | |
Feng, Ying1,2; Tung, Ka-Kit2 | |
2019-11-07 | |
发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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ISSN | 0930-7575 |
EISSN | 1432-0894 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Because of the impact of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon on regional and global weather and climate, its potential long-term predictability is an important area of study. One plausible avenue of approach that has been attempted is to study the low-frequency modulation of the ENSO phenomenon. We consider here specifically the modulation of ENSO on decadal timescales by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Since each phase of the PDO has decadal persistence, it was hoped that its influence on the ENSO phenomenon might have decadal predictability. However, the nature of such an influence is not yet understood. There is no doubt that PDO can affect the tropical sea-surface temperature (SST), mostly in the equatorial Central Pacific, but, is this influence through the nonlinear mechanism of amplitude and frequency modulation of ENSO? Or is it through a linear superposition of the two climate modes on tropical SST? By showing that it is largely the latter, we suggest that the problem of decadal predictability should be recast into predicting not the ENSO itself but the tropical Pacific SST, possibly opening up another avenue of research for this difficult problem. |
领域 | 气候变化 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000495027800002 |
WOS关键词 | EL-NINO ; FREQUENCY ASYMMETRY ; SOLAR-CYCLE ; PACIFIC ; VARIABILITY ; OSCILLATION ; CLIMATE ; MODE ; IMPACT |
WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224227 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Xiamen Univ, Coll Ocean & Earth Sci, Xiamen, Fujian, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Washington, Dept Appl Math, Seattle, WA 98195 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Feng, Ying,Tung, Ka-Kit. ENSO modulation: real and apparent; implications for decadal prediction[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019. |
APA | Feng, Ying,&Tung, Ka-Kit.(2019).ENSO modulation: real and apparent; implications for decadal prediction.CLIMATE DYNAMICS. |
MLA | Feng, Ying,et al."ENSO modulation: real and apparent; implications for decadal prediction".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2019). |
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