Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.5194/acp-19-14517-2019 |
Significant climate impacts of aerosol changes driven by growth in energy use and advances in emission control technology | |
Zhao, Alcide1; Bollasina, Massimo A.1; Crippa, Monica2; Stevenson, David S.1 | |
2019-11-29 | |
发表期刊 | ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS |
ISSN | 1680-7316 |
EISSN | 1680-7324 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 19期号:23页码:14517-14533 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Scotland; Italy |
英文摘要 | Anthropogenic aerosols have increased significantly since the industrial revolution, driven largely by growth in emissions from energy use in sectors including power generation, industry, and transport. Advances in emission control technologies since around 1970, however, have partially counteracted emissions increases from the above sectors. Using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model, we quantify the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and climate response to 1970-2010 aerosol changes associated with the above two policy-relevant emission drivers. Emissions from energy-use growth generate a global mean aerosol ERF (mean +/- 1 standard deviation) of -0.31 +/- 0.22 W M-2 and result in a global mean cooling (-0.35 +/- 0.17 K) and a precipitation reduction (-0.03 +/- 0.02 mm d(-1)). By contrast, the avoided emissions from advances in emission control technology, which benefit air quality, generate a global mean ERF of +0.21 +/- 0.23 W m(-2), a global warming of +0.10 +/- 0.13 K, and global mean precipitation increase of +0.01 +/- 0.02 mm d(-1). Despite the relatively small changes in global mean precipitation, these two emission drivers have profound impacts at regional scales, in particular over Asia and Europe. The total net aerosol impacts on climate are dominated by energy-use growth, from Asia in particular. However, technology advances outweigh energy-use growth over Europe and North America. Various non-linear processes are involved along the pathway from aerosol and their precursor emissions to radiative forcing and ultimately to climate responses, suggesting that the diagnosed aerosol forcing and effects must be interpreted in the context of experiment designs. Further, the temperature response per unit aerosol ERF varies significantly across many factors, including location and magnitude of emission changes, implying that ERF, and the related metrics, needs to be used very carefully for aerosols. Future aerosol-related emission pathways have large temporal and spatial uncertainties; our findings provide useful information for both assessing and interpreting such uncertainties, and they may help inform future climate change impact reduction strategies. |
领域 | 地球科学 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000500014600005 |
WOS关键词 | ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; ARCTIC TEMPERATURE-CHANGE ; EARTH SYSTEM MODEL ; GREENHOUSE-GAS ; ANTHROPOGENIC AEROSOLS ; BLACK-CARBON ; CLOUD INTERACTIONS ; SPATIAL-PATTERNS ; SULFATE AEROSOL ; REACTIVE GASES |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/224096 |
专题 | 环境与发展全球科技态势 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland; 2.European Commiss, JRC, Ispra, Italy |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhao, Alcide,Bollasina, Massimo A.,Crippa, Monica,et al. Significant climate impacts of aerosol changes driven by growth in energy use and advances in emission control technology[J]. ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,2019,19(23):14517-14533. |
APA | Zhao, Alcide,Bollasina, Massimo A.,Crippa, Monica,&Stevenson, David S..(2019).Significant climate impacts of aerosol changes driven by growth in energy use and advances in emission control technology.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,19(23),14517-14533. |
MLA | Zhao, Alcide,et al."Significant climate impacts of aerosol changes driven by growth in energy use and advances in emission control technology".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 19.23(2019):14517-14533. |
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