Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR024148 |
Benefits of Explicit Treatment of Zero Flows in Probabilistic Hydrological Modeling of Ephemeral Catchments | |
McInerney, David1; Kavetski, Dmitri1; Thyer, Mark1; Lerat, Julien2; Kuczera, George3 | |
2019-12-23 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55期号:12页码:11035-11060 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Australia |
英文摘要 | Probabilistic modeling of streamflow in ephemeral catchments, where streamflow is frequently zero or negligible, is a major scientific and operational challenge. This paper evaluates the benefits of an explicit treatment of zero flows in the residual error models used for hydrological model calibration and prediction. In this approach, the lower bound of zero for streamflow is implemented using a censoring approach. The explicit approach is compared to a simpler pragmatic approach, which imposes the zero streamflow bound in prediction but not in calibration. Following a theoretical exposition, empirical comparisons are reported using a daily rainfall-runoff model (GR4J), four residual error schemes (based on log, log-sinh, and Box-Cox [BC] transformations with lambda = 0.2 and 0.5), 74 Australian catchments with diverse hydroclimatology, and five performance metrics (reliability, precision, bias, proportion of zero flow days, and Continuous Ranked Probability skill score). The key findings are as follows: (1) in mid-ephemeral catchments (5-50% zero flows) the explicit approach improves predictive performance, especially reliability, through better characterization of residual errors; (2) BC0.2 and BC0.5 schemes are Pareto optimal in mid-ephemeral catchments (when the explicit approach is used): BC0.2 achieves better reliability and is recommended for probabilistic prediction, whereas BC0.5 attains lower volumetric bias; (3) in low-ephemeral catchments (<5% zero flows) the pragmatic approach is sufficient; (4) in high-ephemeral catchments (>50% zero flows) theoretical limitations result in poor performance of these particular explicit and pragmatic approaches, and further development is needed. The findings provide guidance on improving probabilistic streamflow predictions in ephemeral catchments. |
英文关键词 | probabilistic streamflow prediction ephemeral catchments residual error model zero flow censoring approach Box-Cox transformation |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000503922600001 |
WOS关键词 | RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS ; STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE ; UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION ; STREAMFLOW FORECASTS ; PARAMETER-ESTIMATION ; ERROR MODELS ; CALIBRATION ; PREDICTION ; INFERENCE ; HETEROSCEDASTICITY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/223995 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Adelaide, Sch Civil Environm & Min Engn, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2.Bur Meteorol, Canberra, ACT, Australia; 3.Univ Newcastle, Sch Engn, Callaghan, NSW, Australia |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | McInerney, David,Kavetski, Dmitri,Thyer, Mark,et al. Benefits of Explicit Treatment of Zero Flows in Probabilistic Hydrological Modeling of Ephemeral Catchments[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(12):11035-11060. |
APA | McInerney, David,Kavetski, Dmitri,Thyer, Mark,Lerat, Julien,&Kuczera, George.(2019).Benefits of Explicit Treatment of Zero Flows in Probabilistic Hydrological Modeling of Ephemeral Catchments.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(12),11035-11060. |
MLA | McInerney, David,et al."Benefits of Explicit Treatment of Zero Flows in Probabilistic Hydrological Modeling of Ephemeral Catchments".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.12(2019):11035-11060. |
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