Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR026213 |
A Consistent Approach for Probabilistic Residential Flood Loss Modeling in Europe | |
Luedtke, Stefan1; Schroeter, Kai1; Steinhausen, Max1,2; Weise, Laura1; Figueiredo, Rui3,4; Kreibich, Heidi1 | |
2019-12-12 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55期号:12页码:10616-10635 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Germany; Italy; Portugal |
英文摘要 | In view of globally increasing flood losses, a significantly improved and more efficient flood risk management and adaptation policy are needed. One prerequisite is reliable risk assessments on the continental scale. Flood loss modeling and risk assessments for Europe are until now based on regional approaches using deterministic depth-damage functions. Uncertainties associated with the risk estimation are hardly known. To reduce these shortcomings, we present a novel, consistent approach for probabilistic flood loss modeling for Europe, based on the upscaling of the Bayesian Network Flood Loss Estimation MOdel for the private sector, BN-FLEMOps. The model is applied on the mesoscale in the whole of Europe and can be adapted to regional situations. BN-FLEMOps is validated in three case studies in Italy, Austria, and Germany. The officially reported loss figures of the past flood events are within the 95% quantile range of the probabilistic loss estimation, for all three case studies. In the Italian, Austrian, and German case studies, the median loss estimate shows an overestimation by 28% (2.1 million euro) and 305% (5.8 million euro) and an underestimation by 43% (104 million euro), respectively. In two of the three case studies, the performance of the model improved, when updated with empirical damage data from the area of interest. This approach represents a step forward in European wide flood risk modeling, since it delivers consistent flood loss estimates and inherently provides uncertainty information. Further validation and tests with respect to adapting the model to different European regions are recommended. |
英文关键词 | Probabilistic flood loss model Europe flood risk |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000502337000001 |
WOS关键词 | ELBE RIVER-BASIN ; RISK-MANAGEMENT ; DAMAGE ; TRANSFERABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; INSURANCE ; INSIGHTS ; GERMANY ; EVENT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/223976 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.GFZ German Res Ctr Geosci, Sect Hydrol, Potsdam, Germany; 2.Humboldt Univ, Geog Dept, Berlin, Germany; 3.Scuola Univ Super IUSS Pavia, Pavia, Italy; 4.Univ Porto, Fac Engn, CONSTRUCT LESE, Porto, Portugal |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Luedtke, Stefan,Schroeter, Kai,Steinhausen, Max,et al. A Consistent Approach for Probabilistic Residential Flood Loss Modeling in Europe[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(12):10616-10635. |
APA | Luedtke, Stefan,Schroeter, Kai,Steinhausen, Max,Weise, Laura,Figueiredo, Rui,&Kreibich, Heidi.(2019).A Consistent Approach for Probabilistic Residential Flood Loss Modeling in Europe.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(12),10616-10635. |
MLA | Luedtke, Stefan,et al."A Consistent Approach for Probabilistic Residential Flood Loss Modeling in Europe".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.12(2019):10616-10635. |
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