Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2019WR025305 |
Comparison of Estimation Methods for a Nonstationary Index-Flood Model in Flood Frequency Analysis Using Peaks Over Threshold | |
Durocher, Martin1; Burn, Donald H.1; Ashkar, Fahim2 | |
2019-11-19 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
文章类型 | Article;Early Access |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Canada |
英文摘要 | Accurate estimation of flood frequency is crucial for designing safe infrastructures. To reduce model uncertainty, threshold modeling techniques are often useful in bringing more valuable flood information into the analysis than traditional models based on annual maximum discharges. Due to climatic or anthropogenic causes, changes in flood magnitudes in many parts of the world have been observed and are expected to continue in the future. To characterize such changes, nonstationary models have focused on the modeling of stations with long records, but in practice such models may be needed to improve the evaluation of flood risk for stations having shorter records. In this study, a nonstationary index-flood model for peaks over threshold is investigated to reduce model uncertainty. The assumption of an index-flood model is used to define a probability structure that is stable in time. This allows to extend existing (stationary) procedures to automatically calibrate the proposed model in an at-site and regional context. As part of this procedure, four estimators are investigated in a simulation study to determine which perform best in different situations. Two methods are based on the combination of regression techniques and L-moments, while the other two methods employ likelihood-based techniques. A case study of 425 stations in Canada is considered to verify if a nonstationary index-flood model using pooling groups that combine stationary and nonstationary stations can reduce the uncertainty of design levels associated with a finite reference period. |
英文关键词 | Canada floods nonstationarity peaks over threshold regional frequency analysis |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000497057700001 |
WOS关键词 | INFLUENCE REGRESSION ; UNGAUGED SITES ; EVENTS ; REGION ; IDENTIFICATION ; PRECIPITATION ; STATIONARITY ; VARIABILITY ; ATTRIBUTION ; STATISTICS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/223911 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Waterloo, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Waterloo, ON, Canada; 2.Univ Moncton, Dept Math & Stat, Moncton, NB, Canada |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Durocher, Martin,Burn, Donald H.,Ashkar, Fahim. Comparison of Estimation Methods for a Nonstationary Index-Flood Model in Flood Frequency Analysis Using Peaks Over Threshold[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019. |
APA | Durocher, Martin,Burn, Donald H.,&Ashkar, Fahim.(2019).Comparison of Estimation Methods for a Nonstationary Index-Flood Model in Flood Frequency Analysis Using Peaks Over Threshold.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH. |
MLA | Durocher, Martin,et al."Comparison of Estimation Methods for a Nonstationary Index-Flood Model in Flood Frequency Analysis Using Peaks Over Threshold".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH (2019). |
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