GSTDTAP  > 资源环境科学
DOI10.1029/2019WR025369
Probabilistic Assessment of Flood Hazard due to Levee Breaches Using Fragility Functions
D&1; 39;Oria, M.2
2019-11-08
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2019
文章类型Article;Early Access
语种英语
国家Italy; Sweden
英文摘要

Flood hazard maps are useful tools for land planning and flood risk management in order to increase the safety of flood-prone areas that can be inundated in the event of levee failure. However, flood hazard assessment is affected by various uncertainties, both aleatory and epistemic. The flood hazard analysis should hence take into account the main sources of uncertainty and quantify the confidence of the results for a given design flood event. To this end, this paper presents a probabilistic method for flood hazard mapping, which considers uncertainty due to breach location and failure time. A reliability analysis of the discretized levee system, performed using the concept of fragility function, enables the preselection of a set of levee sections more susceptible to failure. The probabilities of the breach scenarios (characterized by different breach locations and times) are then calculated using the probability multiplication rule, neglecting multiple breaches. The method is applied to a 96-km levee-protected reach in the central portion of the Po River (Northern Italy) and to an adjacent 1,900-km(2) flood-prone area on the right-hand side of the river, with a focus on the piping breach mechanism. The numerical simulations are performed through a combined 1D-2D hydrodynamic model using widespread free software. The results show that the method is effective for probabilistic inundation and flood hazard mapping. In addition, it has the advantage of requiring a smaller computational effort in comparison with the methods based on a classic Monte Carlo procedure.


英文关键词Flood hazard assessment Probabilistic method Levee breaches Fragility functions Piping Case study
领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000495174800001
WOS关键词RISK-ASSESSMENT ; INUNDATION PROBABILITIES ; UNCERTAINTY ; MODEL ; METHODOLOGY ; PROPAGATION ; PREDICTIONS ; SIMULATION ; MANAGEMENT ; PATTERN
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/223880
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Parma, Dept Engn & Architecture, Parma, Italy;
2.Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden;
3.Ctr Nat Hazards & Disaster Sci, Uppsala, Sweden
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
D&,39;Oria, M.. Probabilistic Assessment of Flood Hazard due to Levee Breaches Using Fragility Functions[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019.
APA D&,&39;Oria, M..(2019).Probabilistic Assessment of Flood Hazard due to Levee Breaches Using Fragility Functions.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH.
MLA D&,et al."Probabilistic Assessment of Flood Hazard due to Levee Breaches Using Fragility Functions".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH (2019).
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