Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China

doi:10.1289/EHP3062

GSTDTAP > 资源环境科学

DOI	10.1289/EHP3062
	Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China
	Zhao, Qi 1; Li, Shanshan 1; Cao, Wei 2; Liu, De-Li 3; Qian, Quan 4; Ren, Hongyan 2; Ding, Fan 5; Williams, Gail 6; Huxley, Rachel 7; Zhang, Wenyi 4; Guo, Yuming 1
	2018-04-01
发表期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES
ISSN	0091-6765
EISSN	1552-9924
出版年	2018
卷号	126 期号:4
文章类型	Article
语种	英语
国家	Australia; Peoples R China
英文摘要	BACKGROUND: There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China. OBJECTIVES: We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s. METHODS: Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of I-IFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-WA/1D associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions. RESULTS: During 2009-2014, > 11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20 degrees C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of I-IFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): -13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HEM") may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China. CONCLUSION: Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and MAID varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends.
领域	资源环境
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000431396900014
WOS关键词	EMERGENCY-DEPARTMENT VISITS ; TIME-SERIES ; CHILDHOOD HAND ; METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ; INFECTIOUS-DISEASE ; SHANDONG PROVINCE ; RISK-FACTORS ; IMPACT ; HERPANGINA ; CHILDREN
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health ; Toxicology
引用统计	被引频次：39[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/22374
专题	资源环境科学
作者单位	1.Monash Univ, Sch Publ Hlth & Prevent Med, Dept Epidemiol & Prevent Med, Melbourne, Vic, Australia; 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Beijing, Peoples R China; 3.New South Wales Dept Primary Ind, Wagga Wagga, NSW, Australia; 4.Chinese Peoples Liberat Army, Ctr Dis Surveillance & Res, Inst Dis Control & Prevent, Beijing, Peoples R China; 5.Chinese Ctr Dis Control & Prevent, Publ Hlth Emergency Ctr, Beijing, Peoples R China; 6.Univ Queensland, Sch Publ Hlth, Div Epidemiol & Biostat, Brisbane, Qld, Australia; 7.La Trobe Univ, Coll Sci Hlth & Engn, Melbourne, Vic, Australia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Qi,Li, Shanshan,Cao, Wei,et al. Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China[J]. ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,2018,126(4).
APA	Zhao, Qi.,Li, Shanshan.,Cao, Wei.,Liu, De-Li.,Qian, Quan.,...&Guo, Yuming.(2018).Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China.ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES,126(4).
MLA	Zhao, Qi,et al."Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China".ENVIRONMENTAL HEALTH PERSPECTIVES 126.4(2018).