Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1038/s41558-019-0639-x |
The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models | |
Lehner, Flavio1,2,3; Wood, Andrew W.2; Vano, Julie A.2,4; Lawrence, David M.1; Clark, Martyn P.5; Mankin, Justin S.6,7,8 | |
2019-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
![]() |
ISSN | 1758-678X |
EISSN | 1758-6798 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 9期号:12页码:926-+ |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA; Switzerland; Canada |
英文摘要 | Increasingly, climate change impact assessments rely directly on climate models. Assessments of future water security depend in part on how the land model components in climate models partition precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff, and on the sensitivity of this partitioning to climate. Runoff sensitivities are not well constrained, with CMIP5 models displaying a large spread for the present day, which projects onto change under warming, creating uncertainty. Here we show that constraining CMIP5 model runoff sensitivities with observed estimates could reduce uncertainty in runoff projection over the western United States by up to 50%. We urge caution in the direct use of climate model runoff for applications and encourage model development to use regional-scale hydrological sensitivity metrics to improve projections for water security assessments. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000499106300015 |
WOS关键词 | HYDROLOGIC IMPLICATIONS ; ANNUAL STREAMFLOW ; WATER-RESOURCES ; PLANT-RESPONSES ; ELEVATED CO2 ; COLORADO ; SENSITIVITY ; CMIP5 ; TEMPERATURE ; EFFICIENCY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/223699 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Climate & Global Dynam Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 2.Natl Ctr Atmospher Res, Res Applicat Lab, POB 3000, Boulder, CO 80307 USA; 3.Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, Zurich, Switzerland; 4.Aspen Global Change Inst, Basalt, CO USA; 5.Univ Saskatchewan, Coldwater Lab, Canmore, AB, Canada; 6.Dartmouth Coll, Dept Geog, Hanover, NH 03755 USA; 7.Dartmouth Coll, Dept Earth Sci, Hanover, NH 03755 USA; 8.Columbia Univ, Lamont Doherty Earth Observ, Div Ocean & Climate Phys, Palisades, NY USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Lehner, Flavio,Wood, Andrew W.,Vano, Julie A.,et al. The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2019,9(12):926-+. |
APA | Lehner, Flavio,Wood, Andrew W.,Vano, Julie A.,Lawrence, David M.,Clark, Martyn P.,&Mankin, Justin S..(2019).The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,9(12),926-+. |
MLA | Lehner, Flavio,et al."The potential to reduce uncertainty in regional runoff projections from climate models".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 9.12(2019):926-+. |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。
修改评论