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Climate change will almost certainly generate higher rates of migration and displacement within low-income countries, but will it also generate more international migration? This depends on the receptiveness of destination countries, many of which are currently restricting immigration, criminalizing asylum seekers and using emergent technologies to tighten borders. Should these trends persist, migration to higher-income countries will decline, trapping people in deteriorating situations and reducing adaptive capacity in low-income countries. The United Nations Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration provides an alternative pathway for international migration that builds capacity and sustainability for a climate-disrupted future. The implications of current trends for migrants, policymakers and researchers are detailed in this Perspective.