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Recent Scientific Advancements Show New Connections Between Climate Change and Hurricanes | |
admin | |
2018-09-14 | |
发布年 | 2018 |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | 美国 |
领域 | 气候变化 ; 资源环境 |
正文(英文) | With Hurricane Florence making landfall in the Carolinas, Super Typhoon Mangkhut headed for the Philippines, and Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria fresh in our minds, many are asking what role climate change is playing in these disasters. Scientists have known for years that global warming can exacerbate storms. But our understanding of the connection between hurricanes and climate change has evolved significantly in just the past year. Here’s what the cutting-edge science shows: Warming Can Lead to Slower-Moving HurricanesIf storms hover above an area of land for long periods of time, they continue to dump rain, amplifying the risk of flooding. Very recent research has established a connection between warmer temperatures and the slowing of hurricane movement. A recent study in Nature found that from 1949 to 2016, the speed of tropical cyclones declined by 10 percent globally; North Atlantic tropical cyclones slowed down 20 percent over land areas during the same period. This slowing is part of the reason Hurricane Harvey caused so much damage when it stalled over Texas last year and is of significant concern as Florence comes ashore. Storms Are Moving PolewardScientists suspect that human-caused warming can help explain why the latitude of where tropical cyclones reach their peak intensity has moved 53 and 62 kilometers poleward per decade in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, respectively, away from the tropics. While there has yet to be any signal of migration of storm intensity in the Atlantic, this migration is occurring in other ocean basins, especially the Pacific and South Indian Oceans. Regions that are further away from the equator could see an increased risk of intense storms. On the other hand, those communities closer to the equator, which rely upon tropical cyclone rainfall as freshwater, could see threats to their water supplies. AttributionNone of the statements above suggest that climate change causes hurricanes. However, it’s becoming more and more clear that a warming climate leads to more devastating hurricanes. There have also been tremendous advancements regarding the attribution of specific extreme events being enhanced by climate change. According to Nature, there have been more than 170 scientific studies on attribution of extreme events and climate change published between 2004 and mid-2018. For example:
Building on Prior ResearchThis latest cutting-edge science builds on years of previous research on the connection between hurricanes and manmade warming. According to the 2014 U.S. National Climate Assessment, the intensity, frequency and duration of hurricanes in the North Atlantic, as well as the frequency of the strongest hurricanes, has increased since the early 1980s. And it’s projected to worsen—models suggest that with 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) of global temperature increase, average rainfall rates are projected to increase 10-15 percent within 100 kilometers of a storm. While we may not see an overall higher frequency of storms over the long term, climate change can make them more devastating, with higher rainfall rates, more intensity, and higher storm surges driven by sea level rise. When climate impacts are combined with increased vulnerability as populations and the built environment grow and creep closer to the coast, this can spell disaster. While the science will continue to evolve, we can’t ignore what we already know. We know that we can both reduce the risks associated with climate change by cutting global emissions to safe levels, and by making smart investments to ensure communities and infrastructure are more resilient. The science has spoken. Now it’s time to act. |
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来源平台 | World Resources Institute |
文献类型 | 新闻 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/220253 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 气候变化 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | admin. Recent Scientific Advancements Show New Connections Between Climate Change and Hurricanes. 2018. |
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