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DOI10.1029/2018WR022601
Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-Based Methods
Bellier, Joseph1; Zin, Isabella1; Bontron, Guillaume2
2018-08-01
发表期刊WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
ISSN0043-1397
EISSN1944-7973
出版年2018
卷号54期号:8页码:5741-5762
文章类型Article
语种英语
国家France
英文摘要

Hydrological ensemble forecasts are frequently miscalibrated, and need to be statistically postprocessed in order to account for the total predictive uncertainty. Very often, this step relies on parametric, univariate techniques that ignore the between-basins and between-lead times dependencies. This calls for a procedure referred to as sampling-reordering, which generates a coherent multivariate ensemble from the marginal postprocessed distributions. The ensemble copula coupling (ECC) approach, which is already popular in the field of meteorological postprocessing, is attractive for hydrological forecasts as it preserves the dependence structure of the raw ensemble assumed as spatially and temporally coherent. However, the existing implementations of ECC have strong limitations when applied to hourly streamflow, due to raw ensembles being frequently nondispersive and to streamflow data being strongly autocorrelated. Based on this diagnosis, this paper investigates several variants of ECC, in particular the addition of a perturbation to the raw ensemble to handle the nondispersive cases, and the smoothing of the temporal trajectories to make them more realistic. The evaluation is conducted on a case study of hydrological forecasting over a set of French basins. The results show that the new variants improve upon the existing ECC implementations, while they remain simple and computationally inexpensive.


英文关键词Hydrological ensemble forecasting multivariate postprocessing Ensemble copula coupling
领域资源环境
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000445451800033
WOS关键词RANKED PROBABILITY SCORE ; SCHAAKE SHUFFLE ; PREDICTION ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSFORMATION ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; CALIBRATION ; CATCHMENTS
WOS类目Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources
引用统计
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/22017
专题资源环境科学
作者单位1.Univ Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble INP, CNRS, IRD,IGE, Grenoble, France;
2.Compagnie Natl Rhone, Lyon, France
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Bellier, Joseph,Zin, Isabella,Bontron, Guillaume. Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-Based Methods[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(8):5741-5762.
APA Bellier, Joseph,Zin, Isabella,&Bontron, Guillaume.(2018).Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-Based Methods.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(8),5741-5762.
MLA Bellier, Joseph,et al."Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-Based Methods".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.8(2018):5741-5762.
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