Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR022601 |
Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-Based Methods | |
Bellier, Joseph1; Zin, Isabella1; Bontron, Guillaume2 | |
2018-08-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:8页码:5741-5762 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | France |
英文摘要 | Hydrological ensemble forecasts are frequently miscalibrated, and need to be statistically postprocessed in order to account for the total predictive uncertainty. Very often, this step relies on parametric, univariate techniques that ignore the between-basins and between-lead times dependencies. This calls for a procedure referred to as sampling-reordering, which generates a coherent multivariate ensemble from the marginal postprocessed distributions. The ensemble copula coupling (ECC) approach, which is already popular in the field of meteorological postprocessing, is attractive for hydrological forecasts as it preserves the dependence structure of the raw ensemble assumed as spatially and temporally coherent. However, the existing implementations of ECC have strong limitations when applied to hourly streamflow, due to raw ensembles being frequently nondispersive and to streamflow data being strongly autocorrelated. Based on this diagnosis, this paper investigates several variants of ECC, in particular the addition of a perturbation to the raw ensemble to handle the nondispersive cases, and the smoothing of the temporal trajectories to make them more realistic. The evaluation is conducted on a case study of hydrological forecasting over a set of French basins. The results show that the new variants improve upon the existing ECC implementations, while they remain simple and computationally inexpensive. |
英文关键词 | Hydrological ensemble forecasting multivariate postprocessing Ensemble copula coupling |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000445451800033 |
WOS关键词 | RANKED PROBABILITY SCORE ; SCHAAKE SHUFFLE ; PREDICTION ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; TRANSFORMATION ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; UNCERTAINTY ; CALIBRATION ; CATCHMENTS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/22017 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble INP, CNRS, IRD,IGE, Grenoble, France; 2.Compagnie Natl Rhone, Lyon, France |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Bellier, Joseph,Zin, Isabella,Bontron, Guillaume. Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-Based Methods[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(8):5741-5762. |
APA | Bellier, Joseph,Zin, Isabella,&Bontron, Guillaume.(2018).Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-Based Methods.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(8),5741-5762. |
MLA | Bellier, Joseph,et al."Generating Coherent Ensemble Forecasts After Hydrological Postprocessing: Adaptations of ECC-Based Methods".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.8(2018):5741-5762. |
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