Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1029/2018WR023000 |
A Value-Based Model Selection Approach for Environmental Random Variables | |
Muller, M. F.1; Thompson, S. E.2 | |
2019 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2019 |
卷号 | 55期号:1页码:270-283 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Environmental decisions with substantial social and environmental implications are regularly informed by model predictions, incurring inevitable uncertainty. The selection of a set of model predictions to inform a decision is usually based on model performance, measured by goodness-of-fit metrics. Yet goodness-of-fit metrics have a questionable relationship to a model's value to end users, particularly when validation data are themselves uncertain. For example, decisions based on flow frequency models are not necessarily improved by adopting models with the best overall goodness of fit. We propose an alternative model evaluation approach based on the conditional value of sample information, first defined in 1961, which has found extensive use in sampling design optimization but which has not previously been used for model evaluation. The metric uses observations from a validation set to estimate the expected monetary costs associated with model prediction uncertainties. A model is only considered superior to alternatives if (i) its predictions reduce these costs and (ii) sufficient validation data are available to distinguish its performance from alternative models. By describing prediction uncertainties in monetary terms, the metric facilitates the communication of prediction uncertainty by end users, supporting the inclusion of uncertainty analysis in decision making. |
英文关键词 | value of information Bayesian framework flow duration curve hydropower goodness of fit model selection |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000459536500015 |
WOS关键词 | FLOW-DURATION CURVES ; WATER-QUALITY MANAGEMENT ; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ; EXPECTED VALUE ; INFORMATION ; STREAMFLOW ; SAMPLE ; UNCERTAINTIES ; DISTRIBUTIONS ; REMEDIATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21972 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Notre Dame, Dept Civil & Environm Engn & Earth Sci, Notre Dame, IN 46556 USA; 2.Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Muller, M. F.,Thompson, S. E.. A Value-Based Model Selection Approach for Environmental Random Variables[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2019,55(1):270-283. |
APA | Muller, M. F.,&Thompson, S. E..(2019).A Value-Based Model Selection Approach for Environmental Random Variables.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,55(1),270-283. |
MLA | Muller, M. F.,et al."A Value-Based Model Selection Approach for Environmental Random Variables".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 55.1(2019):270-283. |
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