Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016WR019889 |
Evaluating financial risk management strategies under climate change for hydropower producers on the Great Lakes | |
Meyer, Eliot S.1; Characklis, Gregory W.1; Brown, Casey2 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Hydropower on the Great Lakes makes up a substantial fraction of regional electricity generation capacity. Hydropower producers on the Niagara River (flowing between lakes Erie and Ontario) operate as run-of-river, and changing lake levels alter interlake flows reducing both generation and revenues. Index-based insurance contracts, wherein contract payouts are linked to lake levels, offer a tool for mitigating this risk. As a potentially useful tool, pricing of financial insurance is typically based on historical behavior of the index. However, uncertainty with respect to the impacts of climate change on lake level behavior and how this might translate to increased (or decreased) risk for those selling or buying the insurance remains unexplored. Portfolios of binary index-insurance contracts are developed for hydropower producers on the Niagara River, and their performance is evaluated under a range of climate scenarios. Climate Informed Decision Analysis is used to inform the sensitivity of these portfolios to potential shifts in long-term, climatological variations in water level behavior. Under historical conditions, hydropower producers can use portfolios costing 0.5% of mean revenues to increase their minimum revenue threshold by approximately 18%. However, a one standard deviation decrease in the 50 year mean water level potentially doubles the frequency with which these portfolios would underperform from the perspective of a potential insurer. Trade-offs between portfolio cost and the frequency of underperformance are investigated over a range of climate futures. |
英文关键词 | water resources financial risk hydropower index insurance climate change |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E ; SSCI |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400160500023 |
WOS关键词 | WEATHER INDEX INSURANCE ; WATER ; TRADEOFFS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21965 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ North Carolina Chapel Hill, Dept Environm Sci & Engn, Chapel Hill, NC 27599 USA; 2.Univ Massachusetts, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Amherst, MA 01003 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Meyer, Eliot S.,Characklis, Gregory W.,Brown, Casey. Evaluating financial risk management strategies under climate change for hydropower producers on the Great Lakes[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(3). |
APA | Meyer, Eliot S.,Characklis, Gregory W.,&Brown, Casey.(2017).Evaluating financial risk management strategies under climate change for hydropower producers on the Great Lakes.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(3). |
MLA | Meyer, Eliot S.,et al."Evaluating financial risk management strategies under climate change for hydropower producers on the Great Lakes".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.3(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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