Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016WR019869 |
Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback | |
Tuttle, Samuel E.1; Salvucci, Guido D.2 | |
2017-07-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:7 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Identification of causal links in the land-atmosphere system is important for construction and testing of land surface and general circulation models. However, the land and atmosphere are highly coupled and linked by a vast number of complex, interdependent processes. Statistical methods, such as Granger causality, can help to identify feedbacks from observational data, independent of the different parameterizations of physical processes and spatiotemporal resolution effects that influence feedbacks in models. However, statistical causal identification methods can easily be misapplied, leading to erroneous conclusions about feedback strength and sign. Here, we discuss three factors that must be accounted for in determination of causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback in observations and model output: seasonal and interannual variability, precipitation persistence, and endogeneity. The effect of neglecting these factors is demonstrated in simulated and observational data. The results show that long-timescale variability and precipitation persistence can have a substantial effect on detected soil moisture-precipitation feedback strength, while endogeneity has a smaller effect that is often masked by measurement error and thus is more likely to be an issue when analyzing model data or highly accurate observational data. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000407895000019 |
WOS关键词 | UNITED-STATES ; GRANGER CAUSALITY ; AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION ; COUPLING STRENGTH ; MODEL ; MEMORY |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21955 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Mt Holyoke Coll, Dept Geol & Geog, S Hadley, MA 01075 USA; 2.Boston Univ, Dept Earth & Environm, Boston, MA 02215 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Tuttle, Samuel E.,Salvucci, Guido D.. Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(7). |
APA | Tuttle, Samuel E.,&Salvucci, Guido D..(2017).Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(7). |
MLA | Tuttle, Samuel E.,et al."Confounding factors in determining causal soil moisture-precipitation feedback".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.7(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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