Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR021480 |
Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties | |
Zhu, Feilin1,2; Zhong, Ping-An1,3; Sun, Yimeng1,4; Yeh, William W. -G.2 | |
2017-12-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:12 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Multiple uncertainties exist in the optimal flood control decision-making process, presenting risks involving flood control decisions. This paper defines the main steps in optimal flood control decision making that constitute the Forecast-Optimization-Decision Making (FODM) chain. We propose a framework for supporting optimal flood control decision making under multiple uncertainties and evaluate risk propagation along the FODM chain from a holistic perspective. To deal with uncertainties, we employ stochastic models at each link of the FODM chain. We generate synthetic ensemble flood forecasts via the martingale model of forecast evolution. We then establish a multiobjective stochastic programming with recourse model for optimal flood control operation. The Pareto front under uncertainty is derived via the constraint method coupled with a two-step process. We propose a novel SMAA-TOPSIS model for stochastic multicriteria decision making. Then we propose the risk assessment model, the risk of decision-making errors and rank uncertainty degree to quantify the risk propagation process along the FODM chain. We conduct numerical experiments to investigate the effects of flood forecast uncertainty on optimal flood control decision making and risk propagation. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the Daduhe River basin in China. The results indicate that the proposed method can provide valuable risk information in each link of the FODM chain and enable risk-informed decisions with higher reliability. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000423299000036 |
WOS关键词 | ACCEPTABILITY ANALYSIS ; FORECAST UNCERTAINTY ; RESERVOIR OPERATION ; MODELS ; SYSTEM ; SMAA ; MITIGATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21947 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 3.Hohai Univ, Natl Engn Res Ctr Water Resources Efficient Utiliz, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 4.Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul Eng, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhu, Feilin,Zhong, Ping-An,Sun, Yimeng,et al. Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(12). |
APA | Zhu, Feilin,Zhong, Ping-An,Sun, Yimeng,&Yeh, William W. -G..(2017).Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(12). |
MLA | Zhu, Feilin,et al."Real-Time Optimal Flood Control Decision Making and Risk Propagation Under Multiple Uncertainties".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.12(2017). |
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