Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2017WR021648 |
Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments | |
Jenicek, Michal1; Seibert, Jan2,3; Staudinger, Maria2 | |
2018 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2018 |
卷号 | 54期号:1页码:538-556 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Czech Republic; Switzerland; Sweden |
英文摘要 | It is expected that an increasing proportion of the precipitation will fall as rain in alpine catchments in the future. Consequently, snow storage is expected to decrease, which, together with changes in snowmelt rates and timing, might cause reductions in spring and summer low flows. The objectives of this study were (1) to simulate the effect of changing snow storage on low flows during the warm seasons and (2) to relate drought sensitivity to the simulated snow storage changes at different elevations. The Swiss Climate Change Scenarios 2011 data set was used to derive future changes in air temperature and precipitation. A typical bucket-type catchment model, HBV-light, was applied to 14 mountain catchments in Switzerland to simulate streamflow and snow in the reference period and three future periods. The largest relative decrease in annual maximum SWE was simulated for elevations below 2,200 m a.s.l. (60-75% for the period 2070-2099) and the snowmelt season shifted by up to 4 weeks earlier. The relative decrease in spring and summer minimum runoff that was caused by the relative decrease in maximum SWE (i.e., elasticity), reached 40-90% in most of catchments for the reference period and decreased for the future periods. This decreasing elasticity indicated that the effect of snow on summer low flows is reduced in the future. The fraction of snowmelt runoff in summer decreased by more than 50% at the highest elevations and almost disappeared at the lowest elevations. This might have large implications on water availability during the summer. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000428474000030 |
WOS关键词 | RUNOFF-MODEL ; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME ; WATER EQUIVALENT ; RIVER-BASIN ; CLIMATE ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; SENSITIVITY ; SNOWMELT |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21853 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Charles Univ Prague, Dept Phys Geog & Geoecol, Prague, Czech Republic; 2.Univ Zurich, Dept Geog, Zurich, Switzerland; 3.Uppsala Univ, Dept Earth Sci, Uppsala, Sweden |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Jenicek, Michal,Seibert, Jan,Staudinger, Maria. Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2018,54(1):538-556. |
APA | Jenicek, Michal,Seibert, Jan,&Staudinger, Maria.(2018).Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,54(1),538-556. |
MLA | Jenicek, Michal,et al."Modeling of Future Changes in Seasonal Snowpack and Impacts on Summer Low Flows in Alpine Catchments".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 54.1(2018):538-556. |
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