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DOI | 10.1002/2016WR019842 |
A decomposition-integration risk analysis method for real-time operation of a complex flood control system | |
Chen, Juan1,2; Zhong, Ping-An1,3; Zhang, Yu1; Navar, David2; Yeh, William W-G.2 | |
2017-03-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH |
ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:3 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | Peoples R China; USA |
英文摘要 | Risk analysis plays an important role in decision making for real-time flood control operation of complex flood control systems. A typical flood control system consists of reservoirs, river channels, and downstream control points. The system generally is characterized by nonlinearity and large scale. Additionally, the input variables are mostly stochastic. Because of the dimensionality problem, generally, it would not be possible to carry out risk analysis without decomposition. In this paper, we propose a decomposition-integration approach whereby the original complex flood control system is decomposed into a number of independent subsystems. We conduct risk analysis for each subsystem and then integrate the results by means of combination theory of stochastic processes. We evaluate the propagation of uncertainties through the complex flood control system and calculate the risk of reservoir overtopping, as well as the risk of flooding at selected downstream control points. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River basin in China. The results show that the proposed method is practical and provides a way to estimate the risks in real-time flood control operation of a complex flood control system. |
英文关键词 | flood control system risk analysis decomposition-integration method stochastic simulation Copula theory Maximum entropy theory |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000400160500041 |
WOS关键词 | RESERVOIR ; COMBINATION ; DESIGN ; MODELS |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21829 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Hohai Univ, Coll Hydrol & Water Resources, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China; 2.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; 3.Hohai Univ, Natl Engn Res Ctr Water Resources Efficient Utili, Nanjing, Jiangsu, Peoples R China |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Chen, Juan,Zhong, Ping-An,Zhang, Yu,et al. A decomposition-integration risk analysis method for real-time operation of a complex flood control system[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(3). |
APA | Chen, Juan,Zhong, Ping-An,Zhang, Yu,Navar, David,&Yeh, William W-G..(2017).A decomposition-integration risk analysis method for real-time operation of a complex flood control system.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(3). |
MLA | Chen, Juan,et al."A decomposition-integration risk analysis method for real-time operation of a complex flood control system".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.3(2017). |
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