Global S&T Development Trend Analysis Platform of Resources and Environment
DOI | 10.1002/2016WR019741 |
Approximate Bayesian computation methods for daily spatiotemporal precipitation occurrence simulation | |
Olson, Branden1; Kleiber, William2 | |
2017-04-01 | |
发表期刊 | WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH
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ISSN | 0043-1397 |
EISSN | 1944-7973 |
出版年 | 2017 |
卷号 | 53期号:4 |
文章类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
国家 | USA |
英文摘要 | Stochastic precipitation generators (SPGs) produce synthetic precipitation data and are frequently used to generate inputs for physical models throughout many scientific disciplines. Especially for large data sets, statistical parameter estimation is difficult due to the high dimensionality of the likelihood function. We propose techniques to estimate SPG parameters for spatiotemporal precipitation occurrence based on an emerging set of methods called Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which bypass the evaluation of a likelihood function. Our statistical model employs a thresholded Gaussian process that reduces to a probit regression at single sites. We identify appropriate ABC penalization metrics for our model parameters to produce simulations whose statistical characteristics closely resemble those of the observations. Spell length metrics are appropriate for single sites, while a variogram-based metric is proposed for spatial simulations. We present numerical case studies at sites in Colorado and Iowa where the estimated statistical model adequately reproduces local and domain statistics. Plain Language Summary Statistical simulations of precipitation and other weather quantities are commonly used in many sciences. Modern datasets are extremely high dimensional, which challenge traditional model estimation paradigms. We propose a novel technique specially adapted for estimation using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and show how important characteristics such as dry and wet spells can be used to quantify uncertain model parameters. The proposed method offers promising future directions for further research. |
领域 | 资源环境 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000403682600046 |
WOS关键词 | HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL ; MONTE-CARLO ; DOWNSCALING TECHNIQUES ; STOCHASTIC SIMULATION ; MULTISITE MODEL ; SOLAR-RADIATION ; RAINFALL DATA ; CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; GENERATION |
WOS类目 | Environmental Sciences ; Limnology ; Water Resources |
WOS研究方向 | Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Water Resources |
引用统计 | |
文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.173/C666/handle/2XK7JSWQ/21633 |
专题 | 资源环境科学 |
作者单位 | 1.Univ Washington, Dept Stat, Seattle, WA 98195 USA; 2.Univ Colorado, Dept Appl Math, Boulder, CO 80309 USA |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Olson, Branden,Kleiber, William. Approximate Bayesian computation methods for daily spatiotemporal precipitation occurrence simulation[J]. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,2017,53(4). |
APA | Olson, Branden,&Kleiber, William.(2017).Approximate Bayesian computation methods for daily spatiotemporal precipitation occurrence simulation.WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH,53(4). |
MLA | Olson, Branden,et al."Approximate Bayesian computation methods for daily spatiotemporal precipitation occurrence simulation".WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH 53.4(2017). |
条目包含的文件 | 条目无相关文件。 |
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